Pages

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Some data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

There were stock market returns in the 1930s, they did not beat safe debt returns in terms of risk (speaking broadly). Look at the following charts

All Time: (In the long term, we are dead and cannot enjoy our money)http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

1920-1940
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19201940.html
Look at the knife you would have had to catch in 1932 (at DJI <40 to get the reward of DJI 150 in 1939. More likely, you would have got in at 1933 at DJI 100 and reached DJI 150 in 1939. Look at 1930 to 1932.How many downward plunges were there - you would have had no returns from 1931 to 1939 if you had called the bottom too early. Old people would die waiting in such a time frame

1940-1960:
No matter where you invest, you make money long term http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19401960.html

1960-1980: Speaks for itself
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19601980.html

1980-2000: Also speaks for itself
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19802000.html

I dont want returns 10 years from now, I would rather put it in debt securities and wait for a better opportunity in todays market

No comments: