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Thursday, January 1, 2015

General Predictions for 2015

Happy New Year 2015

Broad predictions for world wide changes

Science: 

My predictions for 2013 seem to have been ahead of their time, because while nothing much happened by Dec 2013, by Dec 2014 a lot of these anticipated technologies have in fact come true. So its worth looking in some detail.

My prediction for no fresh changes in physics for next 50 years, made after discovery of Higgs boson, has fortunately been overturned by the radical new mathematics in multidimensional symmetries, further work on dark matter and dark energy and the possibility that the Higgs boson might have been an artifact after all. Significant work on new possibilities have emerged in 2013 and 2014, making it likely (25% chance)  that by 2025 i.e. just 10 years and much before 2050 which I had earlier predicted, we will have completely new understanding of physics and cosmology which will change life forever. The number of planets detected by Kepler has exponentially increased the chances of contact with extraterrestrial life within next 50 years, initiated by human exploration rather than the other way round. Which might be within the lifetime of some people here (though not me!)

On computer technology, the role of increasing automation of processes reducing the need for human interface to make software work is increasingly removing mid level jobs. So we are going to have well paid innovators and low level  tech support jobs with fewer jobs in between – killing a lot of business models. It will again increase the distance between rich and poor. 2014 saw major work on virtual reality with many products reaching the developer market and I am reiterating my prediction for a change of gaming to immersive virtual reality by 2020 – and possible shift of movies into virtual reality mode by 2025.
2014 finally saw a lot of alternative energy sources coming with reducing costs. The oil at 100+ prices scenario gave an impetus to not only fracking (a most destructive and horrible oil binge on looting the environment) but also in solar and other accumulator technology. Paradoxically it is battery technology which has benefitted the most. Methods of increasing the storage capacity of batteries  are progressing (finally!) the way processing speeds of chips progressed before. The imbalance in technology focus has been corrected. Battery size reduction and charging speed increases are phenomenal and in near future i.e. before 2020 will affect the personal transport equations. Battery operated vehicles will increase in the richer parts of the world exponentially – despite the recent fall in oil prices threatening to cause a resurgence in fuel guzzling cars. I reiterate my prediction of no change in combustion cars but change my prediction to battery operated and hybrid cars – these are falling in price and along with solar technology which fell a lot in cost over last 2 years – will be the future. 

But it is 3D printing which will change life forever. As I predicted in 2013 Jan, manufacturing will change forever but the speed of change has been mindblowing this year. Printing of organs using cell cultures is already moving into mainstream for lab investigation and so is printing of tools for outerspace usage – they already exist in 2014. Traditional manufacturing will no longer give an edge to the countries adopting it – including the make in India campaign.

The brave new world which is emerging is even more seriously threatening a split of the “haves” and the “have nots” with serious economic consequences. The threat of antoglobalization looms – creation of urban technological hubs where the rich and brilliant people live and the rural hinterland where the poor live. Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, London and New York along with other similar cities will become the city of the haves. Rest of the urban slums will become even worse slums. These tendencies are a serious threat to India – since our country doesn’t have even one city with potential. The initial promise of Bangalore and Pune are deteriorating by the day. Modi has to deliver on his cyber smart cities – because if India fails to have even one smart city by 2025, the smart people of India would have moved on to become expats in those cities abroad which deliver a technological edge that is essential for survival as a “have”. A political class which fails to recognize these trends – Modi is balanced on a knife edge – is ensuring the demise of Indian potential. Our smart people who traditionally emigrated but in the noughties came back or stayed back, will leave for ever. Whole of India can turn into a have not area – a wasteland from which every smart person will flee – widening the gulf between the technological super cities and the backward slum cities. And as the middle class with potential starts fleeing, those left behind will be further and further removed from the outperforming population of super cities. Already Singapore and its experiments with eugenics, educational brilliance, encouragement of talent, investment in brains and state directed capitalism are a good example of times to come.

Indians need to observe the progress in the next 3 years very closely because it will determine the future direction of events which will become inexorable. This is India’s last chance.

Oil economy

This deserves a small section in itself. Oil price has fallen to 50$. I didn’t see it coming. In the immediate term it indicates a recession to come. But the linkage of productivity increase to oil price is a more important indicator. West has stagnated at 40 to 50000$ productivity from 2000 to 2014 despite technological advance, mainly because the price of oil has been high. After the world war, almost entire increase in productivity has been fuelled by oil energy and oil as raw material for petrochemicals.  From a high of 140 plus for oil in 2008, despite a fall to sub 50, most of the decade has seen oil around 100$. At this energy price, possibility of productivity increase is minimal to non existent. And so it has proved – productivity has not increased in the West in 10 years. 

The fall in energy price has however raised the possibility that the West will increase its productivity. Presence of solar energy in this mix, at energy price levels compatible with commercial exploitation i.e. grid electricity prices on par with coal and natural gas – means for the first time in history, productivity increase without riding on the back of cheap oil has become possible. Oil economy will be revolutionized. From here on, the price of oil can only fall – because each year, solar energy and battery storage technology is pushing the parity with oil towards a lower and lower price for oil. Same is true for coal as well. While the world has been looking at fracking – which is an environmentally destructive technology, solar energy has reached a point where it can solve the problem of electricity generation as well as personal transportation through battery operated cars. 

In 2013, I had not considered that this would be possible so soon and yet – here we are – it is obvious for all to see – although world will recognize this only after a year or two because people’s eyes are closed. The real reason for oil prices to fall is not the speculative shorting by hedge funds due to the recession in China and the temporary oversupply – that is only the immediate cause. The long term reason for secular fall in oil is because the cost of energy from solar is now on par with fossil fuels – and will soon push down oil prices even more. So over the next 5 years, we will reach oil prices of sub 30$ to the barrel even if it yoyos a lot in the process. After oil finishes falling, it will never rise again. 

We have seen the last hurrah of Gold and of Oil. Both are now dead.

Food

What many people fail to account for is that Oil is not just energy for electricity and transport – it is also needed for food. All fertilizers are oil based and high oil prices were a big component of food inflation.  Falling prices of oil and its secular downtrend means that food inflation will no longer be a problem. Oil will change its nature – from being a fossil fuel, it will change into food resource.  And this implies that food prices from here on will remain low. Current food production is enough for 30 billion people on earth, although it is mostly feeding a billion cows and another billion pigs currently. The use of sugarcane for fuel caused serious stress on food prices some few years ago. Those days are now gone. With electrification of all developed economies, sugarcane will be useless as fuel and the Brazilian rainforests already cut down will shift to food crops, further lowering food prices.

 Changing diet trends with recognition of health problems with high beef and pork diet will see a global decrease in consumption because the USA and China – both top consumers of these products – will reduce consumption. Initially this will be balanced with increase in consumption by India and Africa. But given the current levels of poverty in both and even allowing for phenomenal growth, they will not be able to counterbalance decrease in beef consumption in USA and Europe. Pork in China will likely continue. Trend for meat consumption has been exponentially increasing from 1960 to 2000. In the last decade it has plateaued. My prediction is a continuing plateau with slow fall starting in about the time the present generation of teens turn about 20 i.e. in about 5 years. By 2020, the global levels would have declined 5% from existing levels. Part of this prediction is a bet that average Indians and Africans will not increase their productivity sufficiently to start increasing meat consumption i.e. asymmetric growth in population distribution of income, despite great increase in total GDP of these countries.

All of this means that global hunger will be linked only to administration (or lack of it) because there will be sufficient acreage under farming to comfortably feed everyone.

USA

Politics – I am unable to see anything much happening in USA. Democratic local policies will continue to the best of Obama’s ability. 

Economics: Falling oil is the main indicator for recession along with short term rates higher than long term rates. Current short term rates are 0 and long term rates about 2.2 %. So as long as US Fed raises rates below the long term rates, i.e. upto 1%, we are OK, despite oil signaling recession. I expect the Fed to try and raise rates very very slowly. The last 6 years have had a very deleterious effect on the consumption habits of the Americans. While the rich 25% are wealthier, the bottom 75% now has less money, less credit worthiness, less technical abilities and less earning potential. Globalization is a reality and the lost jobs to China, India, Eastern Europe Philipines and other countries are now gone for good. Retraining has been a big effect in these Fed bail out years and has been broadly effective, but only some 20 to 30% of the population needing to be retrained succeeded in getting adequate levels of retraining. The 90s and noughties have had a debilitating effect on children, they have lost a lot of hard work capabilities which they have only slowly and partially regained. Those in their 20s, who grew up  earlier, despite retraining, have moved into a poorer earning potential. Added to the noughties generation, this is a big pool of around a few tens of millions stuck in permanent poor paying jobs. So retraining worked but not well enough.

In Jan 2013, I had spoken a lot about this – but in Jan 2014, I had downgraded the effects because it seemed as if US growth had bumbled through. By Jan 2015, my 2013 predictions seem to be coming true more than 2014 prediction of USA pulling through. I seem to have jumped the gun in 2013. I am shifting back to my 2013 outlook i.e. rich get richer, poor get poorer, a lot of work gets automated and destroys jobs, there is insufficient job generation and more and more of altruism makes it difficult for people to get paid for jobs which others are doing for free. The quality of Wikepedia keeps improving and will soon make text books redundant within 5 years. All those publishing and selling jobs gone, all those professors  writing books will earn less well, as online resources eat into their livelihood. Just like all the rock bands shifted from record sales to live performance, all the professors will depend on teaching rather than writing. 

The slow rise of inflation in USA has gone unnoticed, except by bloggers. Real estate prices have firmed, despite the low mortgage rates, and the soft period is probably over, although not much real estate price inflation so far. But rental inflation has soared – noticed only in micromarkets where it has happened.  The big new trend in US real estate is likely to be lower cost housing in the 100,000 to 150,000$ bracket. 

Consequently, the actual inflation in real estate will go un-noticed, as people adjust to poorer quality housing and the big middle class houses of the last decade will slowly start getting luxury tag. Food inflation for specific items – not the tracked item – has also increased. So generic milk might have maintained prices, but the brands have raised prices. Overall people are increasingly shifting down because the premium for brand is becoming unaffordable. This might be a permanent split in the society of the haves and have nots and hence business performance of the brands will reflect in stock performance.  The middle class of USA will split into the generic and the brand able – and business strategies will need to be tailored.

Not much can be expected from Obama visit to India. Democrats are anti India while Republicans are more pragmatic – both in love and hate. I expect USA to adopt a wait and watch mode in view of the Hindu lunatic behavior exhibited by RSS types in Modi govt.

Specific predictions USA

Stocks slightly higher in the year. Maybe 18000 to 19000 Dow. Stock specific out and underperformances very likely within the broad index ranges. It is a stock pickers market (unlike the fed fuelled index fund market of 2008 to 2014

Oil. 50$. I think it might be volatile but will settle around 50

Gold. 1050 to 1200 range with a downleg when Fed raises rates.

Bonds. 2-2.5%. Any rise would be good news, but I doubt it. 

Real estate: Firm

Where to invest in USA: REITS 25%. Selected stocks 25%. Emerging market (India, China, Indonesia) 50%. This is a good time to buy real estate using local mortgage if living in USA, both for self use and for rental income – if for the latter. Lower priced (affordable) properties in the 100,000 dollar range would give better rental yield and easier to find tenants.

For Indians living in India I would recommend a 5% weight to US markets with exposure to REITs only (Birla Sun Life Global Real estate fund or if portfolio size is very large HNI type i.e. 20 crore plus, direct exposure to US REITS)

 Europe. 

Recession will continue. UK will outperform, Germany will be OK. Spain and Italy will be in recession. UK I predict a likely scrape through for Cameron and return of Conservative party. Spain likely to see a fractured mandate and solid political disruption causing flight of capital. Currencies will be slowly depreciating against dollar.

Europeans should invest in emerging markets (same as above) and US Treasuries. Real estate avoid in all including UK and London. Indians can ignore investment in Europe including in UK real estate.

ASIA

Political situation has changed a lot in Asia. China will be a 10 trillion economy by 2015 December. That is massive and a 700 billion dollar growth in one year is unprecedented. Approximately double of Japan and five times of India. Now that China, Japan and India have stable governments, we can analyse next 4 years.
China will continue to pressure Japan and India militarily with bases in Sri Lanka, Chittagong, Gawadar, Maldives, Nepal  and Burma. India will be hard pressed by their efforts. The recent Bangladeshi terror outfits of Burdwan got support from Indian communists of Bengal who are traitors. An increasing support of infiltration by Muslim terror from Burma and Bangladesh will continue. Maoists will also set up camps in the cross border areas of Nepal under Nepali Maoist/Chinese patronage for drug and arms smuggling, to pressure India. A red corridor has been set up from Nepal to West Bengal to Maoist infested regions into Bangladesh, North Eastern states and Burma and this will continue. China will also set up port infrastructure in Srilanka for their shipping lanes as well as submarine bases which will link with the bases in Chittagong harbor. 

India will be forced to expend a lot of money on its Navy. Major border events by terrorists will tie up our administration. Our relations with the above Chinese satellite states in South Asia will deteriorate despite Modi efforts to engage them. Ideally Modi should keep quiet and only expand business and shipping with these states. More aggressive posturing should come after 2-3 years.

China will continue its policy of matching Pakistan’s capability to exeed India’s military developments. Pakistan will be given missiles and technology to counter every Indian military advancement. If we make 300 Km Brahmos, Pakistan gets 700 Km Babur from China. If we make a Agni 6 (an empty boast for now), soon Pakistan will get extended range ballistic missiles with MITR (Taimur). If we make Nirbhay, already Pak has Babur and RAAD but might get another counter from China. Pakistan is already out of its league economically as far as GDP is concerned. With 250 billion in total output, Pakistan is 1/7th of Indian GDP of 1750 billion. But China grows 3 Pakistans every year and can afford to give almost any weapons Pakistan needs.

The real question now is not which side Pakistan will chose – it has already chosen China and rejected USA. This was largely imperceptible but more or less, USA has slowly lost influence within Pakistan for the last 3 years. But Chinese have made up for the US loss and might also make up in terms of investments and money in future. China Pakistan Axis is now a major thing.

The real question now is which side will Iran choose? Earlier it was a foregone conclusion that Iran will be with China but now the possibility of Iran choosing USA is increasing. The opening of the Chabahar port by India and building of the Turkmenistan to Chabahar pipe and road has become less relevant for Indian economy with the softening of global fossil fuel prices. But politically, it is very relevant – it represents the last chance for Iran coming to the side of the US. If this initiative fails – with falling oil prices, Iran will find no market for its oil except Pakistan and China. It will be forced to sell below market prices and a pipeline from Iran and even Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to China via the Tibetan/Tarim basin routes might be the only respite for Iran because falling oil will impoverish and diminish Iran. With GDP of 350 billion and 25% coming from oil, the falling oil prices means that Iran GDP will contract by 5 to 10% next year. The only option is to export more and since it has only 2 customers i.e. India and China, it will probably opt for a Chinese pipeline long term export plan unless India counters this with another pipeline to counterbalance and keep it out of permanent Chinese satellite status – possible only if USA stops wearing blinkers and supports these initiatives. Support to Assad from Iran will now reduce. But it depends on China – the future of Syria will be decided by China. Hezbollah funding from Iran will also dry up and Iranian influence in Iraq will reduce.

Saudi GDP of 750 billion has 45% from oil export. So fall in oil means GDP contracts 15 to 20%. This is a serious problem – although cost of production is about 5$ per barrel, the cost including social responsibility becomes much higher at about 50$ per barrel. Saudi will have reduced influence on Sunni extremists because of their loss of revenue surplus – at 50$ cost plus social service breakeven there is no margin left even for Saudi - and their need to expend money on local population increases by the day. Per capita GDP will fall from 25000 to 20000$ this year – a serious contraction.  

UAE will perform much better than Saudi since only 30% of GDP is from oil exports. Still, from 420 billion it should fall to 400 billion or less in 2015. This means that there will be a real estate recession in Dubai and Abu Dhabi worse than the one already seen in 2014. Already there are ads in India for UAE property but UAE high handed behavior of troubling people for permanent resident status has meant that fewer Indians will risk it. 

Syria is poised on a knife edge. I predict that Assad will be bailed out by Iran and China despite US hopes that reduced Russian and Iranian oil revenue will debilitate Assad. Since Chinese action in geopolitics is predictable (unlike India), I see China seeking to increase influence in both Syria and other middle eastern states by rescuing Syria. I see active military equipment transfers including planes, missiles and drones to Assad regime from China – with the desperate Russia providing arms and China bankrolling it. This muscular response will be the first major flexing of muscles against USA by China and we need to watch and wait for it. For the first few months of 2015, I anticipate wait and watch by China as ISIS exterminates all moderate Sunni factions. Then when the ISIS threat becomes simply unbearable, weapons transfer will be done – and possibility of Iranian and Pakistani troops on the ground cannot be ruled out at some point. If the Russia China Iran Pakistan axis does fructify, then getting Syria on its side would be an enormous achievement for China and is worth bankrolling (since the rest of the Axis are all bankrupt). An Iraqi influence will also get generated by this because of the Shias siding with Iran.  This is a solid wedge into the middle east with the Hezbollah of Lebanon also linking up with the Shia faction.

For the Saudi Sunni faction this is a double whammy. Loss of oil money and loss of wide swathes of the middle eastern territory. This will be a make or break year for the Sunnis.

Specific predictions for Asian politics in 2015.

1.       India Pakistan war – unlikely because Pakistan is not gaining anything – it will keep tensions alive by repeated border incidents, firing and terrorism, since it is working so well. One major border incident and one major terrorist intrusion is likely for 2015.

2.       India China war - is not going to happen. Instead, repeated pressure will be exerted by China forcing India to spend on arms both missiles and ships. Each will be matched by transfers to Pakistan to keep India under permanent pressure from a Pakistani military in addition to China. It’s a beautiful straightforward strategy on China’s part and I predict one major border incident and one ship based stand off between India and China, instigated by China, in 2015

3.       China Japan standoff – at least one naval standoff is likely in 2015 as China tries to keep its restive population happy with slowing growth – by evoking nationalism.

4.       Syria: Assad will eliminate 90% of Sunni opposition in late 2014 with Russian, Chinese and Iranian help,after  the Syrian Sunnis have been debilitated by the crudities of the ISIS. Syria might opt to keep ISIS alive in some corner of the country just to trouble the Sunnis of Syria some more (just like in 2014) and to mobilize world opinion against Sunni terror

5.       Iraq: The Shias will continue their wait and watch mode as ISIS rrides roughshod over the Sunni population. Under Iranian Shia influence, they will leave the anti ISIS fight to the Americans and the Kurds for now although might join the hunt with Syria later in the year.

6.       Turkey will continue its wait and watch mode as ISIS destroys more of the Kurds.

7.       Russia will increase arms sale to the Iranians, Chinese Syrians and whoever else as their oil revenue reduces, including weapon sales to India

8.       Global Sunni terror: Funds from Saudi clerics will reduce. Overall terror will reduce as the global horror over ISIS crudities cracks down on the hawala funding. I don’t predict any major terror outrage anywhere in the world except India – which will be the major target in future.

Economic predictions

China: Recession or reduced growth to 5% or less . At least one major bank failure in 2015. Stocks should fall but since China will cut rates and depreciate its currency, in Yuan terms, Shanghai composite might keep its 3000+ levels and might even increase as funds become cheaper and fuel a central bank fuelled binge. Export of cell phones and other gadgets will reach saturation point and as the rich poor divide widens, the markets for cheap Chinese manufacture will reduce in value terms since people will be reluctant to replace gadgets they already have. After the smart phone explosion of 2012 to 2014, all smart phone manufacturers will bleed including Samsung and Chinese phone makers. A similar reluctance to replace perfectly good clothes, shoes, gadgets, electronics etc will be a major wave and will affect Chinese manufactured goods. As Indonesia  and India (large underexposed markets) develop to higher growth and more income, they will seek to do local manufacture rather than import from China. Biggest export from China might be old poor quality polluting factories, second hand equipment, dies  and old technologies to India Vietnam and Indonesia. Increasingly Chinese will learn Hindi and Indonesian as well as English as they try to export training in manufacture and upgrade skill levels. There may be demand for Hindi teachers in China in next couple of years.

Japan. Slow death of Abenomics. Political actions will direct flow of Japanese capital into Taiwan/China/India based on political risks taken by these countries. Nikkei  15000 at end of 2015.

Indonesia: Outperform in stocks
Vietnam: Outperform in stocks
Singapore: Good performance. STI 3500 by 2015 end

Thailand: Underperform in stocks
Korea: Underperform in stocks. Kospi  1750.
Hong Kong: Underperform in stocks. Hang Sheng 20000
Dubai: Underperform in stocks and real estate. Avoid real estate.
Australia: Underperform in stocks

India:

Modi govt is faltering and has underperformed expectations by 90%. 2015 budget will be make or break for Modi. Current RSS type nonsense has to stop and solid focus on economics is essential. Otherwise I anticipate a currency collapse and flight of capital, especially the virulent anti Christian tirades of the RSS types, which is downright suicidal regarding FDI and FII. On the other hand, solid performance will be handsomely rewarded by Rajan with a 1% rate cut and by FII with inflows. 

I expect Modi to rise to the occasion. Enough consternation has been caused by the RSS types and Modi is likely to have adjusted to his new situation and media equation. I expect a slew of measures from him which will be well received by the markets, as he realizes the sutility of changing Indian external affairs after 6 decades of stupidity – it is like changing the direction of a supertanker – very difficult. Already the smart cities for Delhi, GST, Coal and land bills are starting to send the right signals. More and an increasing tempo are needed and is likely

Politics:

I expect a reduction in RSS type noise as Modi cracks the whip – possibly after a poorer than expected performance in Delhi election. A quieter year will start from March and should be the way to go. 

Delhi elections are difficult to call. I expect a stronger performance from AAP than most people expect  and if the RSS type nonsense doesn’t stop soon, AAP might even win. Otherwise  win for BJP is my prediction. It is possible that the anti German row will boomerang big time against BJP - with every middle class household having kids learning a foreign language, voting against BJP.  AAP performance depends on smart positioning (so far lacking) and better candidates (so far very poor quality candidates announced). Overall tendency so far is for AAP to degenerate into a Samajwadi or Janata Party and for Kejriwal turning into a George Fernandes. If Kejriwal steps aside and becomes an attacker in chief without aspiring to become Chief Minister – he might pull it off. As such, he has shown unwillingness to attack Modi on the RSS fringe hijack, education and anti muslim riots and also to have given up anti corruption plank – and has clearly announced desire for CM seat – this will not go down well with middle class. With present disarray of AAP and open embrace of mainstream vote bank politics, he will come second again and lose Delhi.

 In Bihar the BJP performance will be muted and again a 50-50% chance for BJP or JDU govt. In other words, the Modi wave is now dead. Older equations will resurface. Bihar election is too close to predict. All this anti muslim and conversion rows will cause a solid consolidation against BJP and with less visibility of the Modi govt performance, there can be no wave.

Economy:

 I expect good, better or best performance depending on Modi performance. Even if he underperforms, economy is poised to do well even in worst case scenario except for outright war. So investment in equities will do well.

RBI:

 Rajan is in wait and watch mode – and is planning to lower rates only if the govt performs well on reforms. This will convert the expected economic performance into either poor or super brilliant – if govt does well on reforms, it will make the economy outperform. Then Rajan will cut rates by 1 to 1.5 % which will be a turbocharger for the already well performing economy. But if govt underperforms, then economy will be middling but Rajan will not cut and will make life miserable for everybody. This stand of RBI is “demanding” reforms – and I am sure there will be enough reforms to ensure a cut – and hence the stage is set for economic ourperformance. It is a good idea – like being strict with children for their own good, Rajan is being strict with govt for their own good.

RBI will accumulate reserves above 58 to prevent strengthening of Rupee. But if Rupee falls, RBI will let is fall temporarily to get a good 10% spread on its buying and selling price – but after the flight of Rupee, which will be at low prices of 63 or 64, again RBI will sell dollars to bring Rupee back on an even keel of around 60. It is a wonderful strategy and the arbitrage itself is worth many tens of billions – and as soon as people see this tendency, wild flights of dollar out of India will stop and currency will become stable. It is great management.

Equity:
 
Sensex target in worst case scenario is 60,000 in 4 years – which is a compelling argument for equity investments since investment will double in 4 years (17.5% compounded return) even in worst case scenario.

Sensex target (mine) for best case scenario is 200,000 in 4 years – which is 7 times return i.e. 65% compounded return. The main reason for rerating is going to be increased earnings – a constant rise in earning over the next 4 years. Increase will be due to better business environment, newer investment avenues for corporate as well as cut in interest rates.

Real Estate:
 
Real estate has bottomed but is going to be a L shaped bottom with extended stagnation. Since the returns from equity is going to be so good, it is a huge opportunity cost to be locking up big money into real estate – into a stagnating pond when equity is giving so much better returns. 

End users can buy flat/house for self use since price falls are largely over and one will not gain much by waiting. For end users real estate is an expenditure and not investment – as such no need to time more carefully. Prices will not fall. End users should defer purchase only if prices fall in future – one need not defer for stagnation. If buying, only ready to move and register flats should be purchased and not under construction booking. Even for end user, rental stay and investment in equity would work better in financial terms in view of huge opportunity cost.

I will cover real estate in a detailed write up later on. But basic message is – avoid.

Gold:
 
Gold will give negative returns. Dollar strengthening is a continuing theme for the foreseeable future and will kill gold price in dollars. On top of that, there will be net inflow of dollars into Indian economy and this will make the Rupee stable (stable because RBI has shown its readiness to accumulate reserves at 58 levels). Without RBI intervention Rupee should appreciate to 45 levels but with intervention it will remain at current levels or around the comfort level of 60. Which means that there will be no Rupee price inflation for Gold either – or if Rupee appreciates, Gold price in Rupee will have dual reason to fall and keep falling. The boom years in equity with stagnant price for gold will ensure a flight out of gold into equity and this will further reduce demand for gold. 

Bonds:
 
Bond prices will keep rising and yields falling as RBI cuts rates. Already rates fell from 9 to 7.8% in 2014. After the recent blip up to 8, again yields have fallen to 7.8 based only on govt banks cutting deposit rates. By year end, after the RBI has cut, I expect 6.5 to 7% range for the 10 year yield. But the opportunity cost of trying to ride this fall in rates is not worth it for retail investors when returns from equity will outperform the 15 to 20% returns available from bond investors. Existing bond funds can be sold after recent outperformance and having already got a good bulk of the available returns. Existing balanced funds can however be held for a few more months and shift to pure equity fund can be planned after the yield falls below 7.5% since the equity part of the balanced fund portfolio can outperform and the rate cuts can also be taken advantage of. For fund allocation to fixed income, this is the last chance to lock in about 8% return from FMP for next 3 years. So allocations should be completed ASAP in FMP.

Predictions for next decade 

Note: “asset to own (year or decade) gives maximum risk adjusted returns. Asset to avoid is the one investment one should totally avoid because risk of it killing returns is too much – it is a mistake to hold this asset. Assets not specifically predicted to be avoided will give middling returns but will not sink your boat – it is not a real mistake to hold this asset.

Asset of the decade = equity (This is the asset in which one should be maximally invested)

Asset to avoid for the decade = gold (This asset should be avoided completely – most likely to kill returns)

(Fixed income will underperform – use only PPF
Real estate will give returns less than fixed income, unless timed well.
Dollar denominated investments will underperform fixed income)

Predictions for next 4 years

Asset to have = equity

Asset to avoid totally = Gold

(Fixed income will underperform – use only PPF
Real estate will give returns less than fixed income, unless timed well and in right location and segment and only if events transpire to make equity underperform like wars, Hindu muslim riots on major scale etc.
Dollar denominated investments will underperform fixed income)

Predictions for 2015:

Asset of the year = equity

Asset to avoid for the year = Gold and Real estate. 

Portfolio adjustments for 2015

No fresh exposure to real estate, hold existing real estate for long term. Plan entry into real estate only if existing holdings fall below 20% of corpus (unlikely to happen for most middle class people for next few years)

Sell gold if still present in portfolio

Fresh equity and debt allocations 80: 20. Existing portfolio should also be tuned to reach this. 

Overall asset allocation for 2015

Equity 55 (or 60)

Debt 20

Real estate 20

Gold 0

Dollar denominated 5 (or 0)

Portfolio recommendations for 2015 to 2018 (4 year recommendation and 4 year hold)

Size of portfolio 100

1.       PPF 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 10)
2.       FMP 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 10)

3.       Direct equity 25
a.       Pidilite industries 5 (price on 1.1.15 = 552)
b.      HDFC bank 5 (price on 1.1.15 =947)
c.       Asian paints 5 (price on 1.1.15 =747)
d.      Ramco cement 5 (price on 1.1.15 =342)
e.      LIC housing finance 5 (price on 1.1.15 =437)(alt: Shriram transport)
4.       Funds 50
a.       Franklin bluechip 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 338)
b.      UTI opportunities 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 48) (alt: ICICI Tax saving)
c.       BNP midcap 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 22.33)
d.      Franklin small and midcap 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 36.69)
e.      Reliance pharma 5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 126.6)
f.        Franklin infotech fund 5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 110)

5.       Birla global real estate fund  5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 17.53)

Rationale

This is a selected stock+ sector fund + fund type of portfolio (not a stock only or high risk stock with fund or fund only portfolio). It is meant for safe, non monitored and risk free investment. There are 2 semi FMCG vs construction related stocks i.e. Asian paints and Pidilite. There are 2 banks (HDFC and LICHF) and one cement. The aim is concentrated risk on high growth. Only 3 best sectors selected ( 2 players from 2 sectors meant to minimize company specific risk). IT and Pharma sectors are covered by sector funds instead of specific stocks to minimize risk. There are 2 small and midcap funds to maximize gain and one multicap and one large cap fund to capture overall economic performance. Birla REIT can be replaced by a fund (Value discovery) if don’t want dollar denominated hedge. I have posted the NAV on 1.1.15 and we can compare this with levels on 31.12.15 and in each subsequent year with yearly course corrections if needed (stocks selected do not need course correction, being safe bluechips and funds selected are anyway a 4 year hold). I re-emphasize – this is a risk averse portfolio for prudent investment and not meant for higher risk appetite.
These are also meant to be used for SIP (into funds) and systematic equity plans for a drip into the stocks, to gain from price falls which might come. However I will not be analyzing the SIP and SEP performances since not worth the effort.

Summary of Predictions by end of 2015

1.       Sensex 40-45000

2.       Gold stagnant

3.       Real estate stagnant

4.       Bond yield 7%