Pages

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Thoughts on Centralised Admission System

I disagree with this system.

If you want to train 100 meter dash sprinters, you put your best talent in one school, select the best and send to olympics.You dont separate them into 100 schools and put them with marathoners, jumpers, javeliners etc and then make everybody train in everything. Or say that everybody should train in decathlon, because its best for all round athletic development.

Thats what schools like DPS, BVN, Amity are doing - selecting the best parents who will help kids perform later, like a 100 meter dash specialist school. If the rest of the parents bring snob value into these schools and want to get their average kids admitted in them - so that 6000 people apply for 180 seats - the problem is with the parents, not with the schools. 5820/6000 i.e. 97% of parents are going to be disappointed and some will vent their spleen on sites such as this.No matter what the point system, this rejection rate will bring anger to some.

I agree that DPS is much better than BVN. But both their aim in life is same - good academics. BVN just hasnt succeeded like DPS has. The only reason they both do sports and extracurriculars is that in IIM and job interview, academics being the same, those with wider range of activities are preferred. (Many students also do them for the same reason - for interview!) Both do the same - get in topper students from other schools at every class actively, to get the best students in, so that results are good.Strangely, Mothers, which goes for value education, also has good results in 12th because of fresh intake in many classes. SPV does not do this, except for 4-5 seats which fall vacant. Obviously in this attraction game, the very best will choose DPS RKP if they will have them. If not they chose DPS VK, then BVN or Amity. From 10th and 12th results, DPS RKP and DPS VK are almost neck and neck. BVN and Amity come next, again neck and neck, allowing for the bigger class size of BVN. When the principals and teachers are putting in efforts (and they are) at least they should get to choose the students.

I also teach (though not at school level) and its very frustrating to teach students who cannot keep up. The best teachers will want to teach the best students, it is how things are. Drona wants to teach Arjuna. (Ekalavya was there in those days also!!! ) In fact, teachers of good students will not be able to teach average students. Similarly, a teacher who will be good for average students will not be appreciated by a topper student who will want to race ahead.

Putting those students together is a bad idea

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Comparing DPS Mathura Road and Modern School Barakhamba Road

I would say the 2 schools are equal, making the choice extremely tough to make. Both have good infrastructure, excellent teachers and are recently getting rejuvenated after a decade of slow fade.

Om sai ram, if I were you, all things being equal, I would choose on location and personal liking in your situation. I liked the building of DPS MR and the fact that there is only one location, so the child can grow attached to the school.

Rohina, I would stay with DPS MR. Performance comes in 5th and above classes only, by which time bright kids overhaul the average even with age advantage. Average students cannot get by with just age advantage. So your kid being younger will not matter by then, things get evened out. So no point repeating nursery in Modern when already in DPS MR.

In my opinion, both schools used very transparent admission criteria, though many have vented their sour grapes attitude on this site. Modern used better judgement in selecting the cream for their school. I was impressed by their interview, they separated the wheat from the chaff in 2 minutes, while SPV spent 20 minutes conducting an interview in which the discussion was like a gossip session. DPS MR used a not very efficient point system, which may not have selected the best suited kids. So thats a minus point.

Modern and DPS MR both have very young, new dynamic principals, out to prove their worth. I have no doubt both schools will see a marked improvement in their image very soon.One must acknowledge that both schools have had a deterioration of image in the last 10 -15 years. Image is image, it is public perception. Though not having anything to do with reality, it does matter.

If I had to compare, giving 10 to the better of these 2 schools, then I would say

1. Overall brand value Mod 10, MR 8. Both likely to improve, what happens 14 years from now is anybody's guess

2. Academics MR 10, Mod 7. But here, Modern's junior teachers are excellent, best in Delhi

3. Sports Mod 10, MR 10

4. Extra curricular Mod 10, MR 8

5. Infrastructure Mod 10, MR10

6. Snob value Mod 10, MR 7

7. Reverse snob value MR 10, Mod 3. By this I mean that in middle class society, in which I move, people will not like that one's child is in Modern, because they will think we are spoiling the child. Though this in totally unjustified, this is common perception. Although I know the reality, they do not. A lot of my relatives and friends will vocally and silently criticise my choice of Modern, they will do so much less for DPS MR.

So everything depends on what society you move in and what society you want your child to move in.I must hasten to add that most parents in MR and Mod are professionals and middle class. The school fees are reasonable and on par, Modern perhaps lesser by a fourth and both are far removed from international schools which charge 3 times more.

Those are my view points. Do let us know your decision. Gaurav, congrats on your selection

as posted on nurseryadmissions.com

The best school for sports in South Delhi

Thanks to SPOC, Karan, Shilpi and Dr. Sandeep. According to the web research I did, I think the rank for best sports school would be as follows

1. DPS RK Puram: It has the most coaches and gives coaching in the most number of sports.

2. SPV: Especially in cricket. Has a problem of small size. Old cricketing school, good cricket coaching in the morning

3. Vasant Valley: Same problem of small size, so getting enough good people for a strong team is more difficult. But very good coaching and small class size with individual attention. Places lot of emphasis on sports

4. DPS Vasant Kunj / Amity Saket/ Apeejay Sheikh Sarai / DPS MR/Modern BKR. All have reasonable coaching, good teams and good infrastructure

5. Laxman Public School (trying hard)

There are many north and west delhi schools which do well in the interschool competitions, but they are far away so I dont know them.

Shilpi, there are many misperceptions about DPS RKPuram, some of which I shared with you until recently, when I did the actual research.

As posted on admissionsnursery.com

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Some data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

There were stock market returns in the 1930s, they did not beat safe debt returns in terms of risk (speaking broadly). Look at the following charts

All Time: (In the long term, we are dead and cannot enjoy our money)http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

1920-1940
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19201940.html
Look at the knife you would have had to catch in 1932 (at DJI <40 to get the reward of DJI 150 in 1939. More likely, you would have got in at 1933 at DJI 100 and reached DJI 150 in 1939. Look at 1930 to 1932.How many downward plunges were there - you would have had no returns from 1931 to 1939 if you had called the bottom too early. Old people would die waiting in such a time frame

1940-1960:
No matter where you invest, you make money long term http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19401960.html

1960-1980: Speaks for itself
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19601980.html

1980-2000: Also speaks for itself
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19802000.html

I dont want returns 10 years from now, I would rather put it in debt securities and wait for a better opportunity in todays market

Investment thoughts for 2009

Only about 60% of the bad news is out, 40% bad news is yet to come (in my estimate). Some of the bad news still waiting to happen are:

Short Term (for 2009):
1. Earnings degrowth in Chinese companies, leading to loan defaults, Chinese bank failures and depressing commodity prices. There is a deafening silence from China right now, the bad news is likely to be humongous.

2. Earnings degrowth in Indian companies - though most companies will ride out the storm

3. Low commodity prices decimating the remaining value in Russian and Brazilian companies with loan defaults and more trouble for International banks

4. Slow grind down in USA with increased job seekers (fresh grads, laid off people and old people who are unable to make ends meet in retirement, all running after the same pool of shrinking jobs), causing marked reduction in salaries - bad news gadget makers and retailers and credit card companies

Long term (for 2010)
5. Collapse of the education market, since the fees are not commensurate with subsequent earnings prospect. There will also be student loan defaults, since high fees paid will not yield returns in the job market

6. Saturation in the computers and techno gadget markets will lead to poor performance by companies manufacturing these, since people will no longer buy useless gadgets when they already have a gadget which does similar work.

7. Decline in dollar value with low interest rate coupled with high fiscal deficit as the govt pump primes the economy will make imports expensive. People will stop buying cheap crap from Chinese companies because they dont need them and they get expensive. Chinese companies manufacturing useless articles will (and are already) going broke.

8. European high tech manufactures and high tech services will have a slowly shrinking market. The grind down there will be slower than US but equally prolonged.

9. Credit card defaults will continue through 2009 and 2010, putting presure on financials. It will also put severe pressure on retailers as is happening now.

10. Unexpected political events (wars) causing reduction in economic activity, effect of demographics in USA as the baby boomers age and the increased cost of medical attention are all risks not yet factored in.

My expectation:
The time to invest in India, China, Brazil and Russia is after their markets come down about 30-40% from current levels when more of the bad news comes out. Maybe later half of 2009 or first half of 2010

The time to invest in US markets is probably never in our lifetime. At least not for the next 15-20 years. If at all one has to invest, then after markets come down another 30-40% from current levels (Dow 5000 levels) in sharp downturns and trade actively, getting out on every sharp upturn.

Long term hold strategy may be to buy into low cost mutual funds at every downturn (Dow 5000 to 6000 levels) for young people. Old people are not able to hold for 10 years, so stay away from this strategy.

Stock selection will be very difficult in the next 10 years, since there is a change in the pattern of world economic activity, similar to what happened in the sixties and seventies. The tree will bear fruit in 2020, which tree nobody knows.

Old people should invest in debt securities for regular income.

Remember:
1. The time to invest long term in stocks after the 1929 crash was 10 years later in 1939.

2. The time to invest after the recession of the seventies and early eighties was 10 years after 1974

3. Stock selection after 1929 and 1974 was successful in the hands of just one or two super investors. And we dont know how much of that was luck siding with them

4. The world was changing in the 1930s. And the 1960s and 70s. The old ways died and nobody anticipated how things would be.

5. The world is on the threshold of unanticipated change, just like the 1930s and 1970s. The old ways will die. New patterns of living will emerge. The rules of investing will of course remain the same. And they are screaming - WATCH OUT! BE CAREFUL! DON'T GET TOO GREEDY!

We live in intersting times. Watch with curiosity, but keep your money safe, dont jump in too eagerly and with too much expectation.

(my post on The Motley Fool website)