November is always a busy month - too many conferences and the attendant need to prepare so many lectures, talks and papers, including rehearsing ones students. There was a phase in my life when I would have welcomed the travel. Now it is just more work.

But the last IAC conference in Allahabad touched a cord - not so much for the conference itself, which was exactly like all other conferences, but for the visit to Anand Bhavan. Nehru's family really lived in the style of rich English gentlemen and both their palatial mansions reflected the luxuriousness of the era. The garden was fabulous. Back then they had the same furniture, electric irons, libraries and cutlery which all of us use only now.

The initial wonder at their lifestyle slowly merged into sheer awe over the glorious freedom struggle - an excellent audiovisual tour was exceptionally evocative, dredging out the submerged memories of history textbooks read long ago. It was like living through history and being a part of it. All my colleagues from other colleges who accompanied me felt the same pull that I did - a marvelous shared experience.

This peek into our past made my first visit to Allahabad quite memorable.

The Subprime Bore

I have been hearing doomsday predictions for the last 7 years about a collapsing US economy and have believed them all. Still hasnt come true yet. And I am getting tired of the Cassandras and have started disbelieving doomsday scenarios.

The subprime crisis is the latest of a long list of crises that have preceded it. I doubt that it is as serious as the shrill voices on CNBC make it out to be.

As a person living in India, I would am sure about about one thing - the skill levels of the average American are so far above those of even the best Indians (living in India), that there can be no developing nation threat for the US in the forseeable future.

As for China, the Americans have tied them up effectively as cheap labour to power the US lifestyle. If US is over leveraged, imagine the overleveraged plight of China - its longterm infrastructure loans are enough to kill it with even a small hiccup in the Chinese economy. The US killed the Japanese economy by selling them overpriced real estate in the 80s. When South East Asia collapsed in the late 90s, the Americans (and British) picked up the bargain stocks cheap. Now they are killing the Chinese economy by selling them junk dollar bonds. Back in the nineteenth century, the British forced the Chinese to get addicted to opium and then forced them to buy opium from the British. The Chinese had no choice in the matter. Now the Americans have again left the Chinese with no option - they have to hold on to the falling dollar, or watch their economy perish. The people of China have been effectively addicted to a meteoric stock market - and when it falls, as it is bound to, there will be a Boxer rebellion against the communist government. And the Americans will be there to cherry pick the fallen stocks.

The US is the most powerful economic block in the world and is likely to remain so. The chaotic business channels may make a lot of noise, but life will go on, the people of USA will weather the storm, make a few adjustments and get back on top.

They have the competitive advantage.

As for a middle east crunch, I doubt that any Iranian military crisis is likely. More likely, oil will rise to $125, spark a mild and temporary recession, stock markets of USA and BRIC will fall like ninepins, oil will fall to a ridiculous level (maybe $20), Americans will make some life style adjustments, work hard (at something other than selling houses to each other) and by 2010 life will get back on track. Hedge funds will pick up great bargains from the BRIC markets, wealth will flow and the cycle would repeat itself ad-nauseum, as it always has.

(27 Jan 2009: Looking back, I was wrong about subprime crisis being unimportant (big wrong!), right about China (stock market index Shanghai composite went from over 5500 when I wrote to 2000 or so now; Boxer rebellions may emerge any time!), right about Iran (no war happened), right about oil price (went to 147 and then collapsed), wrong about oil price sparking recession because it was the subprime crisis itself which has sparked this recession (kind of right still, I think), right about stock prices of USA and BRIC (fell like ninepins), right about what choices Americans would make (suddenly people are scrambling to keep their jobs!). What happens in 2010 is still out there, but I might have been wrong to predict things getting back on track. Things look pessimistic now, as I have written in another recent post above.

Not a bad job of predictions, even if I say so myself. These predictions above were made when the Indian stock market was behaving like a rocket. I cashed out on my stock market investment in end November, missed 20% gain till Jan 7 of 2008, also missed the minus 50% move (much more in some stocks). Happy to have put my money where my mouth is, happy to not have been greedy for the last 20% and happy to be sitting on cash right now.

These predictions were posted by me on The Motley Fool. I pity the Fools who turned out to be fools and did not listen!)

Then and Now

Strange that the best sellers of long ago continue to be the bestsellers of today. The world of the thriller hasn’t changed much since the eighties when I was heavily into it.

Read Ed McBain’s “Fat Ollies Book”. Heavy handed humor but it succeeded rather well. Very entertaining and very uptodate with references to 9/11, terrorists and all. And we actually get to read the whole of Fat Ollies Book in the novel (all 36 pages of it). The Ed Mcbain I remember was mostly heavy handed police detective fiction, I don’t know when humor started intruding into his writing. Must go back and read his earlier work again. Its amazing that a writer from the fifties has been at it regularly for the last 50 years, producing a book every two or three years. Very different from Mickey Spillane, who wrote in the 50s and 60s too, stopped (except for a book a decade) then came out with “Something down there” in 2003, which flattered to deceive. I liked the beginning, even the name Mako Hooker for the main character (like the shark and Mike Hammer of long ago) – but the latter half and the ending were lifeless. And the book was nowhere near as violent as My Gun is Quick or I the Jury, which were amazing for their time and amazing even now, for the rawness of the violence. These were his first two books and on the recent re-read were stunning. But apart from the violence of his thought process, Spillane never had anything interesting to communicate and his plots were never entertaining. The Snake, One Lonely Night (which started well but degenerated into McCarthyish anticommunism), Survival Zero (total crap) and The death dealers (actually starring a hero called Tiger Mann!) were totally avoidable. The Twisted Thing was a good read for its plot and because the villain is a boy. Am yet to read The delta factor.

Mario Puzo’s Omerta was excellent – unputdownable. As good as his magnum opus The Godfather from the seventies, though written just a few years ago. It does glamorize Sicilian gansters, but that holds true for the Godfather too. Omerta was so good that I re-read and re-enjoyed Godfather. Puzo has written very few books, but whatever he has produced is brilliant. I would never have guessed that Godfather was written so long ago and that too based on events just after the second world war – it could have been written yesterday. A timeless book.

Spy vs. Spy

I have always had fond memories of Bernard Samson as the most likeable fictional spy I have ever read about. Fortunately the story line of almost all the Len Deightons I have read had completely slipped my memory, making the re-reads well worth it. Berlin Game is still brilliant after all these years – the best spy story I have ever read including the Le Carre trilogy as well. Mexico Set and London Match were more like unnecessary appendages, written just to let us get more of Samson than to have any meaningful story. Hadn’t read the Spy Hook, Line and Sinker trilogy before. Also superfluous as regards story – the same characters going around the mulberry bush again. Spy Sinker, written from Samson’s wife’s viewpoint, filled in the story gaps but was horrible, lacking the main reason one reads the stories – Samson’s first person narrative. I was able to get my hands on the first of the next trilogy – Faith. More going round the mulberry bush, but having more action. Very enjoyable, once again. Must read Hope and Charity, as well as Winter.

Frederich Forsyth’s Fourth Protocol had a brilliant first half, one of the best spy stories I have read. But the plot is totally over the top – toning down the hyperbole would have made it much more enjoyable. Why bring nuclear weapons into it at all when an ordinary bomb would have served equally well? The Negotiator, which I read next was worse – a million characters whom I didn’t bother to keep track, except the main protagonist. There were some good moments though. But when Margaret Thatcher and Mikhail Gorbachev are fictional characters in a book – I cant stomach that. Especially when the so called exposure of the villain occurs at the end. You have been wondering - Is it the Vice President? The Secretary of State? Director of FBI or CIA? And then it turns out to be some completely anticlimactic Deputy Director of FBI (or whatever his position was – I have already forgotten). Disastrous ending. Forsyth's latest book The Afghan was also excellent, but not for his story. Instead, it’s the re-telling of the riveting details of the 9/11 bombing, the Afghan war, the assassination of Ahmed Shah Masood and the fight at Tora Bora which grip one. (Just as Odessa File is riveting just because of the details of Nazi genocide rather than the main story – I guessed the ending of Odessa File on the present re-read without difficulty, despite having forgotten the story completely) The actual fictional part of the Afghan was pathetic. Truth indeed has become stranger and more entertaining than fiction.

And shootout at Tora Bora seems to have replaced the shootout at OK Corral in the popular imagination.

The Dauladhar mountains at Dharamshala

Having seen the Dauladhar range from the far distance ten years ago – a hazy collection of peaks with snowy white tops, a close range view of them at Dharamshala was magnificent, despite the near total absence of snow on the peaks. The way from Pathankot to Dharamshala in the Kangra valley was through low hills and flat plateaus, covered with Chir pine with paddy fields in between. The Chakki bridge had been washed away in a cloudburst just a month ago, and the alternative route was more like a jeep track than a road. Even after joining the main road, a lot of the way had heavy excavations and repairs going on. But all this only added to the excitement and adventure quotient of the trip.

The Club Mahindra resort was picturesque, though situated on a busy road. The back side had a nice garden and a spectacular view of the Dauladhar mountains. Vikram had a good time finding interesting plants, creepy crawlies and snails. We clambered around on the surrounding hillsides and explored the riversides, where Vikram collected river rocks. A number of extremely picturesque streams flowing down from the mountain were within walking distance, including one adjacent to the resort itself.

The visit to McLeodganj was beautiful. The mountains were much closer with slate strewn slopes and a small waterfall. The Dall lake surrounded by Deodhar trees was more like a muddy pond, but the kids enjoyed the boat ride nevertheless. There were a lot of fishes there who dined on a packet of bread presented to them by Vikram – now I know the meaning of the phrase feeding frenzy. The Tibetan temple was interesting but too modern in its concrete construction to inspire awe.

The trip to Kangra river the next day was fantastic too. The river was small but flowed very fast through a spectacular gorge – the first I have seen at such close quarters. The green waters with white rapids were clean and glistening. The Kangra fort perched on a hill nearby provided a wonderful view of the gorge. Climbing from the river bed where we wet our feet to the high fort was along a road following the river, slowly climbing to the top of the steep walls, amazing views all the way. The only minus point was the near total absence of interesting bird and animal life in the Kangra valley. We see more outside our windows every day. But the scenery more than made up for this small deficiency. Well worth the time and effort.

The Inscrutable Americans

An old book by Anurag Mathur, out in 1991 and probably written in the eighties. Didnt like it much. The main protagonist was too much like Hurree Jamset Ram Singh of Billy Bunter and his American friend too much like Wodehouse's Psmith. In fact the writing had a British rather than American flavour. Except for the first couple of pages, wasnt funny and even less believable - how can a person who supposedly read Archie comics and saw Saturday Night Fever on video in India, not know about American football, cheerleaders and a million other commonplace Americanisms? The brevity (after Stephen King's Stand) was welcome.

Jim Corbett in March 2007

The jungle has always held a fascination for me. Pictures from a recent visit to Jim Corbett were developed the other day, although we had visited the place in March of this year. I can still remember my first couple of visits to the park over 10 years ago. Not much has changed, including my enthusiasm to be out there roaming the jungle at the crack of dawn.

It is the entry into the park which enthralls, twisting through the hill sides on a jeep track, crossing small river beds and rolling though the Sal forests to reach the Dhikala camp. It is situated on the banks of the Ramganga river, which forms a lake behind a dam nearby. The river bed is very wide, full of tall grass. Crossing the river on a pontoon bridge in a jeep this time was easy - the last time I had driven across the river in my car, which was quite scary.

The nearby plateau is a savannah grassland, which we covered on elephant back on the first days evening – the high point of the trip without doubt. Never saw a tiger, but I didn’t mind because the beauty of the place and the numerous birds seen made up for it. Saw a crested serpent eagle swoop down on a snake in a tree and carry it off, wrigling furiously, in its talons. The eagle's name is definitely justified.

The second days early morning jeep ride was beautiful. Saw many birds, deer and elephants on the river bed. They were at a distance and were being chased by a tiger, invisible in the tall grass. The big elephants formed a circle to protect the small ones in the center. Calm returned after about a quarter of an hour.

Saw a lot of langurs, huddling two by two on the tree branches, tails hanging down, whether trying to beat the morning cold or for love is an unanswered question.

There was a report of a man being gored by a Sambhar deer in the camp. The same one which seemed so tame the previous night, that I clicked a picture of Vikram near it. Must not underestimate wild animals again.

Just seeing the pictures and writing about it makes me want to visit Corbett again.

And yet, the most memorable part of the trip was when we left the park. Sitting on the banks of the Kosi river which is just outside, a high cliff face ahead of us, watching the swift green torrent gush by, swirling eddies over our bare feet – just great.

A video - Because it is possible

Stephen King Re-visited

Just how random is life?

I have spent almost all my freetime in the last year reading my old books all over again. Started on Stephen King a month ago. Started with Carrie in fact, his first book. Didnt like it at all. Pyrokinesis is possible says Stephen King. Big deal. I remember switching off the movie version in the gory opening scene some time ago. His second book Salems Lot was more promising at the beginning - evocative imagery and realistic writing, enough to forget that he wrote this one thirty years ago. But the premise was so shallow it was ridiculous - Oh my God, Vampires exist! So what. Firestarter, Dead Zone and Christine went the same way, I simply could not discover what had made me like this author all those years ago.

Night shift was better, King should stick to short stories. Stories like "The last rung of the ladder", "The ledge", "I know what you need", "I am the doorway", "The man who loved flowers" and "Quitters Inc" were excellent, reminding me of some of the better episodes from Twilight Zone, the ones which made you think a bit. In fact I have seen TV versions of Quitter's Inc and The Ledge. Skeleton crew, the other collection of short stories, had less interesting stories, although "The raft", "The reapers image" and some of the others were okay. The first story called "Mist" was some 150 odd pages long - some short story! But it was alright, I actually liked the ending being left in limbo. Better than his interminable novels.

And then I read Needful Things. His best novel that I have read recently. Less of explicit horror (horrible horror that is) and more of psychological brinkmanship so to speak, as the reader is forced through some spirited fight scenes between people. I have seen the movie of this one some time ago and it too was excellent, probably the only watchable King movie. The most believable premise so far - if the devil existed, he would probably be someone like this one.

It is surprising that I had forgotten all of these stories completely, though I had read them some 15 years ago. Anyway, I wondered how his newer stories were, the ones I hadnt read earlier. Picked up Dreamcatcher from the local library. Truly horrible. The story was appalling, the characters, compared to his seventies and early eighties books, were totally lifeless and it had a 1000 pages of rubbish to wade through. I skimmed and speed read through it. Completely avoidable.

The Running Man wasnt too bad. At least it was short. But King's vision of the future is not off the mark at all, what with all the reality shows running on TV. I still did not enjoy it much. Maybe the lingering after taste of Dreamcatcher spoilt the show. I seem to remember the movie, starring Arnie, being very different from the book.

It was Different Seasons, a novella collection, that I liked the most. King's novellas are always better, less detail in his irrelevant verbiage, and they get over faster. But this one had no horror at all, just real life stories and it had me wishing King wrote such stories all the time. Rita Hayworth and the Shawshank redemption was a thoroughly enjoyable story about prison life. Apt pupil was not so good but still better than everything else I had read except Needful Things. King has missed his calling - he should have written psyco thrillers. Real life horror is so much superior to made up horror.

The third novella, "The Body" has to be King's best work by far. So good that it made me think of my own childhood, something I hadnt done much of recently. King writes really well about children, they are his best characters in all the other books I had read too. This story was like a reminiscence of the author himself, written in the first person, talking about his childhood friends. So well written that I ended up recalling my own school friends, searched for them on the internet, found them and started an email correspondence. That has got to be some powerful story, right?

So the fourth novella of Different Seasons, "The breathing method" came as an anticlimax. An excellent story in its own right, as good as the best in Night Shift, but I took three days to read its 50 pages. I was in another place mentally, you see.

Strange how a random act of reading a book can lead to totally unforseen conclusions. So is life random? Or is the seed of every future event burried in our past?

I have started on The Stand. Let us see how it pans out - all 750 pages of it! Every book by King would be much improved if they were cut down to about a third of the length.

(Finished The Stand with difficulty. Horrible. Pages and pages of inconsequential bilge that I speed read through. Twenty years of separation between Stand and Dreamcatcher havent made any difference - same rubbish.
September 3, 2007 9:59 PM )

Day 1: On blogs and old friends

I once again have decided to start a blog. The last one lasted for exactly one post. Then I forgot the address! So the damn thing is lost in cyberspace somewhere.

Why a blog?

Well, I have spent the last week meeting three of my old school friends on the internet. Checked out my old school (DTEA RK Puram) on google search, discovered an alumni page, found some phone numbers and email IDs and voila! I am in touch with one classmate right here in Delhi (whose address and phone numbers I had lost long ago), one in Hongkong and the third in Bangalore.

I then exchanged details separately with the three of them. So much easier if I had a blog, to let my friends know what is happening in my life right now. Thats what I felt, when I visited the blog of my niece, who is from a different generation and much more net savvy than I could ever be.

And yet, it is frightening just how much I can find out about just anybody by spending half an hour on the internet. In fact, I was actually googling for a person's name, another old school mate, for whom I had used "DTEA" to refine the search, that I happened upon the alumni site. Then I googled my own name and was amazed. Of course, my medical publications came up, but so did my contact addresses and many other details - if anybody wanted to find out all about me, it would be so easy.

And here I am, putting more fingerprints on the internet. I guess I decided information overload would ensure that the details would actually become more difficult to fish out. Believe me, I have actually experienced this while doing a medical literature search - relevant information has a tendency to be hidden beneath such a lot of irrelevance that it is like finding a needle in a haystack.

The real reason is of course plain boredom, not having anything to do (more precisely, not having the inclination to do any of the things I am supposed to be doing right now!) - so let me start a blog.

And maybe, just maybe, I would actually start having thoughts which are worth writing down, rather than the random and mostly unnecessary ruminations which occupy my mind all the while.