The subprime crisis is the latest of a long list of crises that have preceded it. I doubt that it is as serious as the shrill voices on CNBC make it out to be.
As a person living in India, I would am sure about about one thing - the skill levels of the average American are so far above those of even the best Indians (living in India), that there can be no developing nation threat for the US in the forseeable future.
As for China, the Americans have tied them up effectively as cheap labour to power the US lifestyle. If US is over leveraged, imagine the overleveraged plight of China - its longterm infrastructure loans are enough to kill it with even a small hiccup in the Chinese economy. The US killed the Japanese economy by selling them overpriced real estate in the 80s. When South East Asia collapsed in the late 90s, the Americans (and British) picked up the bargain stocks cheap. Now they are killing the Chinese economy by selling them junk dollar bonds. Back in the nineteenth century, the British forced the Chinese to get addicted to opium and then forced them to buy opium from the British. The Chinese had no choice in the matter. Now the Americans have again left the Chinese with no option - they have to hold on to the falling dollar, or watch their economy perish. The people of China have been effectively addicted to a meteoric stock market - and when it falls, as it is bound to, there will be a Boxer rebellion against the communist government. And the Americans will be there to cherry pick the fallen stocks.
The US is the most powerful economic block in the world and is likely to remain so. The chaotic business channels may make a lot of noise, but life will go on, the people of USA will weather the storm, make a few adjustments and get back on top.
They have the competitive advantage.
As for a middle east crunch, I doubt that any Iranian military crisis is likely. More likely, oil will rise to $125, spark a mild and temporary recession, stock markets of USA and BRIC will fall like ninepins, oil will fall to a ridiculous level (maybe $20), Americans will make some life style adjustments, work hard (at something other than selling houses to each other) and by 2010 life will get back on track. Hedge funds will pick up great bargains from the BRIC markets, wealth will flow and the cycle would repeat itself ad-nauseum, as it always has.
(27 Jan 2009: Looking back, I was wrong about subprime crisis being unimportant (big wrong!), right about China (stock market index Shanghai composite went from over 5500 when I wrote to 2000 or so now; Boxer rebellions may emerge any time!), right about Iran (no war happened), right about oil price (went to 147 and then collapsed), wrong about oil price sparking recession because it was the subprime crisis itself which has sparked this recession (kind of right still, I think), right about stock prices of USA and BRIC (fell like ninepins), right about what choices Americans would make (suddenly people are scrambling to keep their jobs!). What happens in 2010 is still out there, but I might have been wrong to predict things getting back on track. Things look pessimistic now, as I have written in another recent post above.
Not a bad job of predictions, even if I say so myself. These predictions above were made when the Indian stock market was behaving like a rocket. I cashed out on my stock market investment in end November, missed 20% gain till Jan 7 of 2008, also missed the minus 50% move (much more in some stocks). Happy to have put my money where my mouth is, happy to not have been greedy for the last 20% and happy to be sitting on cash right now.
These predictions were posted by me on The Motley Fool. I pity the Fools who turned out to be fools and did not listen!)
