Indian Political Outlook for 2014

1.1.14

I think in optimistic scenario BJP will manage to win 210-215 seats (with Delhi and Uttarakhand which got left out in the table). Central to this prediction is optimistic estimate of 10 seats on its own in Andhra, 17 in Bihar, 12 in KArnataka, and a very optimistic 25 in UP = 75.  Most pessimistic estimate in these would be 2, 12, 8, 15 = 40 i.e a deficit of 35 seats with a total of 160-170. I think this is unlikely and in fact, BJP on its own with existing allies might cross well above 220 based on even better performance in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and UP.

Most importantly, my prediction estimates a wipe out of Nitish - he might do better - but in the end he is  likely to ally with NDA. Jagan, Chiranjeevi and TRS might ally with NDA. AAP might abstain. AIADMK and TNC might give issue based support to NDA - and BSP might sell its seats = comfortable majority on the floor is easily possible.

How can BJP convert this good situation into a self goal? BJP has self destructive tendencies but fortunately, all of these issues are getting spent well before the elections - BJP blundered in Delhi govt formation and criticism of AAP, criticism of Gays, Asaram Bapu, snoopgate, Gadkari Purti - whatever blunders are in its genetic makeup it has already done or uttered well in advance - making it difficult to imagine just how it can goof up. 

But BJP is an expert in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as it did in Delhi recently - but AAP govt in Delhi is best possible outcome for BJP by confining AAP to a 6 months performance. Stupid Goel has been attacking BJP by attacking AAP - he is BJP's worst enemy by making these stupid vitriolic comments.

Best approach for BJP would be to extend issue based support to AAP, giving assurance that it will not let Congress topple the AAP govt and to encouurage and promote the steps taken by AAP - instead of making a shadow cabinet in AAP to detract the AAP, they should in fact extend help and advice to AAP and even lend its cadre to AAP - to coopt and turn the AAP into its B team.

But BJP leaders are stupid. MAybe NArendra Modi might do these things - and get the AAP supporters on his side for the Lok Sabha elections.

AAP might get 23 seats with 4 in Delhi, 4 in Karnataka, 5 in Punjab, 5 in Haryana and 5 in UP. I am not sure they will succeed in Maharashtra. This is however dependent on the performance. If they do tax cuts in Delhi, they will win. If they think in communist ideology, they wil lcommit hara kiri.

Third front is a non starter now - since Nitish is out. I have given good projection for Navin Patnaik, NCP and Trinamul but they cannot ally with communist - so the third front is basically impossible. 

All in all, the thrust of BJP should be to recapture from AAP without criticising - but by joining at grassroots level - and they romp home!



20.1.14

I have thought about the Punjab, Karnataka, Maharashtra and UP where people wrote feedback and I read more elsewhere. Overall I would reiterate a 20 seats scenario for AAP.

I might however have miscalculated on where they would get it. But that is likely to be balanced by gains elsewhere. I might have gobe for a 40-50 seats scenario which many had said if Kejri performance had been better as CM. Unfortunately he seems to be alienating his vote bank among the educated by his antics. The last 2 weeks have been disastrous.

It is necessary to follow their rural connect program on the ground till March to get better idea. But for now, it seems like the AAP high command is frittering away its energy in a losing battle over the media airwaves. Without a personal outreach into the rural areas, AAP cannot do well. Let us see.

I still feel that AAP actual performance in Bangalore will be less than expected because in national election, positive viewpoint of economic policies of BJP will be appreciated better. A similar situation in Mumbai. Among lower middle class, AAP will have higher voteshare, but an equal consolidation in favour of BJP might nullify these effects. With three way split of votes, and Congress/NCP doind better than COngress in Delhi, I have my doubts whether AAP will win seats in Bangalore or Mumbai.

I think Amethi challenge might end in a whimper for AAP. In a five way fight between AAP, BJP, Congress, SP and BSP, Congress might walk away the winner i.e. Rahul will win. I doubt if AAP will be able to consolidate the anti congress vote - so a 20% chance for that happening and 60% chance of Congress win with 20% for one of the others especially BJP.

I might have been wrong about Punjab. I felt the population is ripe for picking by anticorruption plank. But many of you feel otherwise.

I think I was right for Haryana. AAP will consolidate anticongress vote. But again, with effective BJP Modi campaign, BJP might emerge a surprise winner sweeping the state also - if the development plank clicks.

I might have got Delhi wrong - I now feel BJP will sweep Delhi. AAP has been too bizarre and people of Delhi are too well connected with media - AAP has scared everyone by their actions.

I might have got UP wrong. I felt it was ripe for AAP to pick anti BJP anti SP votes but they might win bigger than expected.

Bihar I dont think AAP will win at all. Nitish likely to re-ally with BJP at the last moment. So it will be a 2 horse race.

So net net, the reductions and additions for AAP are still pointing to about 20. LEt us relook after a month or so.

Feb 1 2014

I dont see much difference in my thinking in 2 weeks - since prediction remains same - my predictions are always overall big picture and not a sum of the parts - since I believe that multiple small part predictions might see me going wrong in both directions which will cancel each other out and the big picture will remain the same. Only shifting some seats around.

I saw the poll results last night after the post. I had predicted a tilt towards AAP in Punjab based only on population dynamics and psychology - and I think AAP will do better in Punjab than many expect.

KArnataka and Mumbai are still not going to fetch seats for AAP I feel. The anti business and anti upper middle class nature of AAP is now apparent and will affect performance, and vote share.

In KArnataka I had given more seats to BJP and in Maharashtra less seats for the right wing alliance. Even if Kinjal's analysis pans out, net result will be similar.

Orissa is going with BJD, true. One can debate the seat distribution adnauseum. But it wont be a BJP state. So not crucial.

UP and Bihar and Punjab are big areas where there is doubt. 

UP Kinjal says BSP will win big. But AAP might cut into their vote share - and a vote against poor governance might go to both AAP and BJP since Congress is out of the picture. S a big question mark.

Bihar again I gave good enough performance to LAlu and Co - Kinjal feels it might be even better but the vote share pattern released yesterday reflects otherwise. A split of the JDU to BJP might be the more likely option than Nitish joining alliance, but politicians forget acrimony in 6 days and 6 weeks - forget 6 months. And Nitish will want to survive.

Andhra I did give seats to BJP and assumed TDP will ally with BJP and gave good performance. Yes AP is difficult to predict. Telengana will be TRS and Congress but then these legislators will all be for sale to the highest bidder. Seemandhra is impossible to predict now - with a 6 way split of votes. I dont agree Jagan will sweep - TDP and BJP might do better. But let us see over next month or so.

All in all my prediction was for 145 to Congress+ (around 45 for sale to highest bidder as TRS, NCP, DMK,), 175 to Third front and 215 to BJP+ (around 15 to 20 for sale to highest bidder as TDP, JDU, Akali)

UP

Regarding UP. I can recollect the approximate (ball park) caste distribution.

20% high caste. Currently favour BJP.

20% Muslim. Currently favour BSP, but vote for most potent candidate against BJP locally. Unlikely to vote SP.

20% Dalit of which 10% are BSP vote bank. Currently favour BSP/Congress. Rest 10% lower dalits vote for Congress but might vote for good governance - and go with AAP or BJP.

20% Yadav and Jat. Yadav vote for For SP. Jats will vote for Ajit but might vote BJP after Muzaffarnagar.

20% MBC. Some will vote BJP, rest are likely to vote for good governance which might be AAP. Kurmis and other MBC might favour BJP due to Kalyan Singh and development plank.

Regionwise, Western UP might see major problem because of the Jat Muslim fall out. Previously used to vote for Ajit Singh and BSP depending on region. Now the region is up for grabs. Jats vote if it shifts to BJP will cause a landslide for BJP in Western UP with BSP picking up the rest of the seats based on Muslim Dalit combo. AAP is the joker - if muslims vote AAP, if 10% lower dalits votes for for AAP and if MBC vote for AAP - and if a wave is visible, and if the upper caste also vote AAP - then AAP can have a landslide victory in Western UP.

All of these are major ifs. So safe bet is to say - 5 seats for AAP in Western UP in NCR regions.

Muzaffarnagar likely to go to BJP or BSP in even split.

Agra region same split between BJP and BSP.

Rest of UP - a threeway split between BJP, BSP and SP is the safest bet, since depending on local caste combination, each of these 3 can win. SP should win least of the three.

So my prediction was 5 for congress, 5 for AAP in Western UP, 20 for BSP, 25 for BJP 10 for SP, and 15 was the swing factor which I had kept out - as others.

These 15 could be Ajit Singh, BSP or SP. It could even be BJP. And of course it could be AAP.

I counted 25 for BJP in my calculation. If they win even less than 25, then there is a problem. But it might as well be more than 25.

Even steven, counting 25 for BJP in UP seems justified with the upper caste voting for BJP, some Jat votes, some Kurmi votes, some lower dalit and some MBC votes based on Kalyan Singh factor. A strategic wooing to create a viable caste coalition based on development plank should succeed.

All in all, anarchy in center due to congress, and anarchy in UP under SP will make people either vote for BJP or BSP or AAP. Both Congress and SP should lose.

Main surge for BJP will come if muslims make an error in their tactical voting and the anti BJP vote gets split. With AAP and BSP vying for muslims, this is most likely to happen in WEstern UP. Rest of UP, a block voting for BSP seems on the cards.

A clean sweep by BSP seems less likely because of no development under their rule. Many of the MBC and lower dalits may get swayed by AAP in West or BJP in rest of UP.

BJP getting 25 in UP seems enough for viability to reach a total 215 seat target. Anything more would be icing on the cake.

AAP is nowhere in UP, not even in urban areas. Jats will vote overwhelmingly for BJP though their number is much lower than what you wrote. Muslim percentage is much higher than 20%. It was ~ 22.4% even in 2001 and is now likely to be around 25% now.

There is a Modi wave in UP among hindus.

BJP is likely to win 30 seats in UP and will emerge as the largest party.[/QUOTE]

AAP has potential political space because of misgovernance.

Jats replace Yadavs in Western UP to a large extent. Yes percentage is I think around 15 or 17 percent - but 20% is easy to remember - in any case, in some constutuencies groups dominate much more.

Muslim population is around 23% but electorate probably around 19%.

After I wrote, I saw the C voter prediction of BJP sweep in UP. Also saw Modi rally speech - quite impressive. I feel local UP BJP leadership is weak and so infighting will pull down their potential.

Modi should contest from Eastern UP if he wants to sweep UP and Bihar

11.2.14

But I am seeing BJP commit several self goals.

It still makes sense for BJP to ally with BJD, Nitish and TDP.

BJD and Nitish might not oblige. But BJP has nothing to lose by supporting a grand alliance of Jagan, TDP and BJP and sweeping Seemandhra with rejection of telengana bill.

I dont see how supporting Telengana bill with riders helps BJP in any way. TRS and Congress only will win if BJP supports telengana bill. Bizarre approach for BJP.

Maybe this will happen a couple of weeks later - but still - alliances are not going BJP way. Modi with prepoll alliances will sweep 300+ seats.

Why are they not stiching them up?

12.2.14

I had initially said 23 for AAP with mainly a more optimistic future just before new year.

Currently I would be inclined to downgrade AAP to about 10 seats only because of the several self goals they have done and the lack of any meaningful management.

But the situation is very fluid. A lot depends on next 1 month. 

Unless some regional parties merge with AAP I dont see how AAP can grow. And with the exposure of Kejriwals dictatorial and crazy style and removal of all threats from with in the party like with BInny, Madhuri etc and stifling of dissent, no other party (like Lok Sattta etc) will be inclined to join AAP.

Some of the recent high profile people like Capt. Gopinath are sidelined. Let us see how Sanyal and Balakrishna fare in the immediate future. Kumar Vishwas jokes on Keralites has caused massive damage to AAP image in the South among the upper middle class professionals. Bharti hasnt helped either.

Tellingly, not a single decent person has joined AAP in last 1 month. There are no good candidates. What will AAP chose for Lok Sabha candidates - more Bhartis, Binnys, Madan Lals?

I will retake my call after another month. UP and Punjab situation is not clear. Lot depends on the viability of alliances stiched up by BJP in Haryana  - so far its not clear but if BJP alliance is good in Haryana, AAP will come a cropper and vice versa. Basically splitting of all other non congress parties in favour of BJP with Lok Sabha vs State election trade off is needed. Otherwise AAP should do very well as originally predicted. Also expect a scam a day TV nautanki against Hooda govt very soon by AAP.

Delhi also the upper middle class is swinging away. Assuming that the BJP vote bank in Delhi from Dec 2013 is fixed - and the committed BJP vote is likely fixed - AAP will lose vote share in Delhi from upper middle class and gain muslim vote share.

Congress might lose vote share in Muslim areas also to AAP.

AAP and BJP too close to predict - if the lower middle class stays with AAP, then 50 50 - which was my initial prediction for Delhi in new year

Frankly I dont think it will make a difference. 25 seats for BJP from UP was my initial estimate. 10 seats were up for grabs based on a swaying vote - which will be last minute.

BJP in UP is deeeply devided with terrible infighting. Many self goals will come regardless of what Modi does.

What BSP does might make more difference than what Modi does. I havent seen any moves from the elephant so far. Maybe they are working at the local village level. But still - not seeing anything great so far.

I am sure Arun Jaitly is making deep analysis of the caste equations of UP and Bihar to micromanage and decide the candidate distribution. His analysis will be more important than Modi in deciding success or failure. Modi is only the face. Jaitly is the brain behind Modi.

But Modi's Chai pe charcha was quite impressive. I watched for 2 hours plus today. First time hearing a more open speaking style from Modi rather than a rally speech or a venue speech. This man deserves to be India's PM. This is the first time I am feeling this about any election in India in memory. For the first time ever, we have a real candidate.

It was a better and more sanitised and sophisticated version of the Mohalla Sabha of AAP. Less of chaos and speech interruptus. Less of allegations and criticisms. Kejriwal himself is totally negative and cynical. One always distrusts the motives of a cynic - how can he be thus and yet be a positive do-gooder - cynicism and positivism generally dont go together, unless its a confidence trick.

Exceptionally positive attitude for Modi through - and if one drops the usual cynicism so common in India - if instead you decide to trust the words as spoken - and with his existing track record - believable !

I think Modi can do serious good for our country. I dont think AAP can - they need to improve themselves for another 5 years in opposition before one can trust them.

COngress of course deserves to become extinct, its space taken over completely by AAP

15.2.14 (after AAP left Delhi govt)

I am upgrading AAP to 5/7 delhi lok sabha seats and simple majority in next assemby elections. Due mainly to their superior political skills. AK47 YY combo is clearly smarter than anything congi and bjp has.Even Jaitley is no match for AK47. 

I cant believe AAP managed to emerge from the chakravyuh victorious. For every middle class vote lost they have probably gained 5 muslim or poor vote

I am also upgrading AAP back to 20 plus seats for now. based purely on political skills demonstrated. After another month i will again re evaluate. Things are happening at break neck pace. Situation will again change in a month

16.2.14

Today i asked 6 people from middle middle class who had voted AAP if they will vote him again. 5/6 said they will vote BJP.

I think lower middle class will vote in large numbers for AAP. Upper middle class who dont like BJP will vote AAP. Middle middle is shifting to BJP.

By the way i hope you arent calling me intellectual. That term is reserved for leftists.

Of  the three issues inflation and jobs nobody will believe in AAP for delivery. For those two it will be BJP. Corruption yes they will believe AAP.

Lets see what the next one month turns up.

I have decided to curtail further stock investments. Will stay in liquid and switch in on day of results. Same as what fii are doing.

Any formation wih AK47 in center will be very bad news for business

18.2.14

Gujrat Rajasthan MP  AAP is likely to eat anti BJP votes which would have gone to congress.BJP seats likely to increase.

chattisgarh and jharkhand difficult to predict how much AAP will cut BJP votes. Unless there is big naxa.lite push which is so far unpresidented.

Delhi AAP will cut young votes which would have gone to BJP. 

Urban Haryana AAP will cut BJP. Rural also they can eat small party votes. Anti congress votes will get split.

UP Bihar and Maharashtra AAP willcut young and urban voters of BJP. They will limit BJP. All in all i stick to 215 zeats for BJP. AAP will cost 30 potential anti congress seats.

19.2.14

Does BJP expect TRS and TDP to win big and then join NDA?

Otherwise BJP support for telengana is inexplicable and another self goal. They should have made pre poll alliance with TDP and torpedoed telengana. Then TRS would have gone alone and swept telengana and still sided with NDA. While TDP BJP would have swept Andhra.

Now Congress will sweep telengana. Andhra TDP cannot tie up with BJP now and both will under perform separately.

Yet another BJP self goal. Stupidity of BJP is unbounded

4.3.14

BJP alliance with Paswan is of doubtful value. 7 seats is a lot to give and they include almost all areas where Paswan vote bank is big. Paswan has no transferable vote in the rest of Bihar.

Bhumihars and Thakurs in these 7 seats are going to be very unhappy and infighting of the BJP local leaders is going to be real bad because everybody thought there would be 40 tickets and had made plans accordingly.

Tangible loss vs intangible gain - I hope the BJP gamblers know what they are doing.

I think the BJP would have won 2-3 out of the 7 seats they conceded. Paswan himself is likely to win only 3-4 seats because I doubt if the BJP voters will transfer their votes to PAswan - they might vote for JDU instead.

Net net I think JDU gains. BJP will get 17 seats including what PAswan will bring. Same as original projection except that now 3 will belong to PAswan

As discussed in IREF

http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/off-topic-forum/t-indian-political-outlook-2014-a-71572.html