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Friday, July 6, 2012

The Double your money in 2 years opportunity

You need a combination of very long term indicators. Right timing comes once in 5-7 years only.

2004 was one.

2009 was another.

You need the following to happen:

1. Lowering of interest rates by RBI by more then 1.5%, ideally 2% over 2 years (6-6.5% short term rates in current scenario)

2. Stock market should have risen 20% or more and there should be buzz about a bull market - with hype of reforms and optimistic press - especially if it comes after some 2 years of bear market

3. FD rates below 7% in current scenario (historically it happened higher in 1970-2000 years)

4. Oil low for 1.5 - 2 years (say below 70$ in current situation) with sudden recent uptick

5. Good growth in China and USA with Europe at least reversing recession

6. Recent rise of commodity prices after 1.5- 2 years of low prices.

7. RE coming out of a period of stagnation with maximum activity in IREF and other discussion sites being in "crash" and "bubble burst" for 1.5-2 years i.e. oversold market with pessimist turning into optimism. Especially if many builders have collapsed and most people are scared of property

When all these indicators come together the first person who overcomes the fear of property and shifts money from stocks to RE will make 40% per annum for 2 years from plot investment

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