On the RE cycle

Some outstanding posts in this thread in the last 10-15 pages over the last month or so. Excellent read on a slow afternoon.

My take: 2012 wil be a slow year for GGN with static prices and poor resales in flats. Until the resales are absorbed by end user, one cannot expect any more price increases.

Investors should stay away. End user will have a lot of choice and negotiation leeway - this will be the year of absorption

2003 was a slow year

2004 was the year of new launches

2005 was the year of resale purchase absorption

2006 was the year of price increases

2007 was the year of massive price escalation in resale

2008 was the year of crash

2009 was the year of slow sales

2010 was the year of runaway price increase

2011 was the year of new launches

2012 will be the year of price stagnation and fall

2013 will be the year of resale purchase absorption

2014 will be the next round of runaway price increase

2015 might be the next bull phase massive price increases, in new and resale, similar to 2006-7.

Assuming the 7-8 year RE cycle seen all over the world repeats itself here