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Friday, September 28, 2012

On SIP and stock investing


The only passive growth asset for which leverage is possible will always be RE. Otherwise you can do leverage for your business.

No leverage for gold, not stocks - and in bonds, you are the lever and banks do the leverage with your money !!!

And ANurag, SIP is a decadal thing - you have the accumulation phase during earning years. Then before retirement (or whatever projected end use like education or marriage) you have to time a good exit or use SWP to take out money and put into debt.

Dont bother about returns - it will come with a most un-anticipated jump - and many jumps - which nobody is nimble footed enough to catch just right.

Time frame for stocks should be 10 or even better 15 years. So stocks are useless while saving for a vacation or car or gadgets - dont even try. Education, marriage of children and retirement are the only things for which stocks are suitable.

With 10 years, you are likely to catch two bull phases in economy cycle, three if lucky. With 15 years, you are likely to catch 3 bull phases of industrial cycle, as many as 5 if you are very lucky.

You cant time it - staying invested is the only option.

Maximum 20-30% of your stocks you can time in or out based on your estimates of the likely market direction - but the bulk 70-80% of your money should always stay in the market. I myself have used timing - sometimes I have made money, never lost but definitely lost opportunity by reducing market exposure. And I devote a lot of time and effort in trying to time right and have basically given up. Buffet was right after all.

Stay invested for long term.

Best option when bull phase bloats your stock portfolio to huge proportions is to bleed out some money into a flat booking - since flat prices are less volatile. That way you will accumulate another category of investment which moves differently from stocks, with same or even better performance characteristics.

I am sure the last few days and weeks have drastically altered your view of your SIP funds - I myself am feeling rather satisfied. I feel a lot less satisfied with my PF and FD where I have similar amounts - returns with stocks are about 5 times more.

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