On Distributed Rural Urbanization

I would like to look at the rural urban divide differently - and I am sure history will prove me right.

[B]Because of poor politics, the urbanization of India has FAILED.[/B] We have the worst of cities and the highest of prices for commercial and residential lands and buildings.

The purpose of urbanization (which is to generate a producing class in manufacturing and services) is getting defeated - no commercial venture in India is viable because RE cost is too high. Because of this, every retail venture in India is in loss. Other industries fare no better. Power fails because of coal problem (corruption, crony) and SEB distribution problem (failure of urbanization). Water fails because of failure in civil engineering - again failure of urbanization.

More important - land cost is so high that industrialization is failing. Land acquired from farmers is either low cost but terrible deal for the poor farmer and is exploitative - or is so expensive that industry becomes unviable. Services cannot afford the high cost of commercial RE - so retail, software services etc are having big problems. And these are big employers potentially.

So what will happen?

One thing [B]will not[/B] happen - India will not urbanise like every other developed country. Urbanization has failed permanently.

Of the two other possibilities, one is that India fails to develop - fails completely as a state. This is unlikely.

Only other possibility is to work around the urbanization problem - by distributed low grade urbanization of rural areas.

This is what is happening and is reflected in the data you have provided. People on their own have started developing in tier 3 and smaller towns. Of the two things needed - communication and roads - one they have got (m-obile phone communication) - although Congress and Raja tried to derail that also.

Roads need govt action - currently they are missing, though Vajpayee started a great process which Congress derailed - but will slowly come.

So India is not going to develop in urbanization - but by means of distributed [B]rural-urbanization[/B]. Small cities smaller than Mathura, Bharatpur, Moradabad even - will develop where rural urbanization has happened despite lack of governance.

India will develop by rural urbanization process - given the land problems in cities.