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Monday, October 15, 2012

GDP and mortgages


As a rule -

total mortgages of a country equal the annual GDP

stock market capitalization equals the annual GDP

For total mortgages, one should add the residential plus commercial. So if you add 20% commercial to 80% residential in USA, it adds up to the annual GDP:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/145361-composition-of-total-mortgage-amounts-outstanding-in-the-u-s

In India, equity markets are developed and market capitalization is equal to the annual GDP.

While mortgages do not equal the GDP.

However the amounts lent to builders should also be added and private equity should also be added as proxy for commercial mortgage   (amounting to probably about 5Lakh Crore = 5 trillion rupees = 100 billion dollars or 5% of GDP)

Since majority of the population (who contribute to maybe 25-50% of GDP) dont qualify for a mortgage, it is no wonder that mortgages form only 20-25% of annual GDP

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