http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/noida/t-up-elections-what-likely-happen-23996.html

3/1/12

Summarising opinions and some thoughts
Lots of great insight from all of you here. SOme of the points which I had not considered:

1. Companies have already set aside money for bribing new govt: probably true. But companies which are too closely associated with BMW regime might have problems just to prove the point that politicians are the bosses - so they might trouble JP just to send a message - JP will be screwed if BMW loses - or the payment will be much more than for other players. But please note - JP is a old and Sen-s-ex listed company unlike Sahara which is a front for ganster money. Also, JP survived under congress 30 years ago - will survive with heavy bleeding. Paras, NRI, Wave etc are just BMW front companies and will probably take the investors money and vanish - truly avoidable.

2. Many people feel that BJP and BSP might have coalition. But will BJP have any significant numbers? Their non-yadav OBC vote bank is being actively poached by congress and BSP - we have to see what happens. Brahmins, Bania and Thakurs may or may not vote for them - they might just vote for the caste and in their areas, all parties will have same caste contender - they might vote for the person and not party. YOu need over 50 seats to be able to support a govt - otherwise people will just defect. BJP is in make or break situation.

3. Gorakhpur situation was well pointed out - same with Jhansi - Bundelkhand and Purvanchal regions might respond to the state split proposal of BSP - they might be a big surprise win for BSP. Again, we need to see.

4. Yadav plus muslim is alone enough to defeat BSP - as in past. Tactical co-operation between congress and SP can really get them a land slide - probably it wont come about (politicians are so stupid) - adding congress MBC and non yadav OBC and some of the brahmin/bania/thakur votes to SP would get them land slide. Without poaching each others votes

5. Congress and BSP cannot have pre-poll alliance - they try for the same votes and can only compete and go for post poll alliance.

6. Anna is irrelevant. He should not waste his time in UP - he should be in Punjab and Uttaranchal where his anti congress message can help BJP re-election

7. Early lok sabha polls - no chance. Congress is not stupid like BJP - only BJP was stupid enough to dissolve early and lose power a year before they had to. COngress will never make the mistake. If congress had faced the 1999 confidence poll where Saifuddin Soz brought down govt with one vote - their speaker would have cast 2 votes and made the govt survive. BJP was stupid enough to have a speaker who did not vote at all - morons.

8. A lot also depends on turnout - lower the turn out, better for BSP (whose people will turn out). Yadav and muslim will also turn out - but a lot of MBC, non yadav OBC and brahmin/bania/thakur might not turn out at all. Bad for congress and BJP. With 40% turn out, BSP win is certain, with 60% turn out SP/Congress win is certain, at 50% turn out, its anybodies guess. Especially western UP and Awadh turn outs.

9. Positioning for real estate: avoid fresh exposure till elections are over. But expect a big boost in flat prices of around 30% after elections - so hold positions. If BSP wins, expect a boost in JP projects. Other BSP front projects can heave a sigh of relief. If SP wins, front companies will delay project for 5 years. This will reduce supply. All others will have to raise prices for the fresh bribes - so expect prices to jump by 30% across the board. Added to all the other congress related measures, strong prices in NOIDA for the remainder of the congress term till 2014 is inevitable. Expressway projects are the best bet right now.

10. For stocks, JP stocks are the best bet - they are already hammered with limited downside. If BSP wins, expect a 100% return within 3 months. Especially JP infra. In general, regardless of results, if COngress is involved in UP govt, expect a big stock and real estate boost. Expect a lot of fireworks in budget also - all in all, from now to March, best time to enter stocks.



All in all, it seems like a close race for BSP and SP - overall, I am hearing that law and order was little better under BMW and statehood might strike a cord in some parts of UP - if they work, BSP might win (30% chance). Otherwise SP (70% chance)
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Looks like the elections are wide open - going by all your spinions - and Zohaib's opinion elsewhere. Maybe BSP might perform better than expected.

BJP getting 18% of the vote seems unlikely this time - I expect a disproportionate drop in BJP seats because of this - maybe to even less than 20!

Which makes it a three horse race with Congress as the kingmaker.

Regardless of result, NOIDA RE prices should go up - on feel good factor if BSP wins, on supply reduction and land scarcity issue if SP wins.

In fact, prices may goup more if SP wins than if BSP wins

5/1/12

For BJP this is a crucial election because it is in danger of losing Punjab and Uttarakhand.

Gadkari's stupidity knows no bounds. First he puts Uma Bharti in charge - she has done nothing in this campaign - may not even get the Lodh votes. MBC and OBC other than Yadav are still open for grabs by Congress and BSP.

Then he actually inducts Kushwaha and company into BJP - talk about a death wish - what vote can they deliver? Thakur vote? More likely to lose Thakur votes by displaying themselves as morons to whom corruption of the worst order is acceptable and the extent of their stupidity - Thakurs are mostly well educated and well aware of "smartness" in a party. They are not going to like a person like Gadkari

Gadkari should be kicked out of BJP. He is killing the party. Wishtowns Zohaib is absolutely right - law and order of "no dacoity/robbery/beating/gun or katta running/drug smuggling type is what is needed.

SP of course is a criminal party and every leader in it is a drug/booze smuggler or gun runner. And yet self goals from BSP and BJP are pushing this criminal party into power by default (and cynical low mindedness from Congress who is willing to consort with these criminals).

Did BSP do anything for Brahmins, Banias and Thakurs at all? Why would anyone except Dalits vote for her? Unfortunately for BSP, the upper caste boat has now sailed and it is too late to do anything.

If she is smart, she should really swing for the MBC votes - say how the minority reservation is going to eat into the MBC share - how congress is destroying the MBC - that is a winning strategy for her, assuming Muslims will not vote for her.

She cannot angle for both Muslim and MBC votes - she has to chose one or the other.

11/1/12

Situation in UP seems to be quite fluid and changing every day.

BJP might be doing micromanagement but that in itself is not enough. They also need to make a lot of noise – perhaps from Uma Bharti – so that tey are not seen as total losers and non-entities – otherwise they will be marginalized.

BSP might be making a late recovery and might improve from previous expected second position. I agree that covering the statues is going to benefit the BSP – correct procedure would have been to get a court judgement against BSP for self agrandisement and using state funds for self and party symbol promotion. Congress did not do that – instead they put in pliable election commissionaires who can be influenced – typical Congress behaviour.

Congress might be getting too clever for its own good. Most of its strategies are capable of backfiring – Maha Dalit reservation might not get it any votes but might improve vote consolidation for BSP. MBC might not benefit them either – it can backfire and end up benefiting BJP and SP by consolidating their respective vote banks within the OBC. And minority reservation might also consolidate anti-minority votes towards BJP – and at the same time, by targeting SP, which is the biggest challenge to BSP, the vote splitting might end up benefiting BSP/

So which of these eventualities prevail is unpredictable and the election is wide open still.

Re: Modi, his campaign in UP might be useful in consolidation of anti-minority votes.

Bania/Thakur/Brahmins/MBC/Dalits are the biggest victims of criminality indulged in by SP their minority criminal elements and BJP and BSP might be a surprise beneficiary of minority pandering by Congress.

TO me it seems that Congress is making self goals and converting a strong position into a disaster.