On February 3 I wondered when to get back into the market with my successful exit cash. To cut a long story short, I did not get in, when I could have doubled my money in 3 months. I kept waiting and then it was too late. All I could do was book a little more profit for some holdings at Sensex 15000. Good timing for the exit. Again, this only reinforces my earlier belief (see Feb 3rdpost) that it is easy to exit but difficult to enter well.
I console myself with the thought that nobody could have predicted such a great election victory. And the lesson learned is that 3 months of pessimism wipes out all weak hands who sell and exit. Markets in oversold territory will bounce up after 3-4 months of pessimism. Even a 20-25% gain from 8000 to 10000 Sensex or so would have been worth it.
Now I am hoping for a rerun of the 1931 second dip after the bear market correction, so that I can get in.
Sensex 6000, where are you?!!!
2 comments:
I believe you decided to exit market and book handsome profit because you do not believe in prosperity and growth of Indian Economy in medium term. I bet, you will never find market charts like this, the ones you will see created in china, India, Brazil in last 3 years. Things dipped sharply but recovered sharply as well. Much awaited fall in real estate prices never came in but on the other side food prices, commodities prices gained allot to compensate for rise in reality prices and stock exchanges leading to deprecation of Indian rupees in real sense. This is the reason despite Indian stock exchanges growing so high, rupees still stands on 46 against dollar.
20 percent rise in sensex in just 1 day was very mysterious and I believe was per-prated by mutual funds and LIC on direction of finance ministry. Did you see the figures who has been buying all the stocks in 2008 when prices were falling? it was all DII's who bought all this because tons of money is coming into mutual funds which is being put into stock exchange.
In simple terms when you exited guessing market will fall further you did not wait for moving averages to fall which was kind of technical mistake. Indian market is not the bear market but bull market because property in India has just started since 2002.
Let me know what you think?
Hi Mahi.
I exited in Nov 2007 at Sensex 17-18000.
I waited for the market to fall, which it did. But I waited too long. I should have got in at Sensex 8000 in MArch 2009, after 1 and a half years of waiting.
I got greedy and waited for further fall. Never came.
My long term portfolio (70% of total stock portfolio) performed much better than my market timing portfolio (30% of stock). I invest my long term portfolio for ever - except minor adjustments. Has give much better returns over the last 10 years.
I have mistimed on many occasions in the last 10 years. I got in at Sensex 2600 in 2001, exited with handsome gains in 2004 at sensex 6000-7000, re-entered at Sensex 10,000 and exited at 17000 to 18000.
I have yet to re-enter the market with my timing portfolio. Still waiting and watching.
Post a Comment