ICE AGE INDIA: NOT ICY AT ALL

 IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

The pleistocene is the present ice age in which we are currently in an interglacial period. What is India’s climate like when it’s the glacial phase i.e. Pleistocene in a glacial phase?

Not much different from now.

The ice during an ice age is all in Europe and America.

India stays more or less the same.

India’s climate hasn’t changed much in the last 2.5 million years. Nor has its geology – the current mountains and rivers were still there and the monsoon was there throughout. The Pir Panjal and Siwaliks grew higher but the big mountains of the Himalaya were only a bit shorter than now.

Ice age India is easily summarised in two lines:

1. When world gets cold, India gets dry.

2. When world gets hot, India gets wet

That just about sums up everything. For brevity the entire Pleistocene can be evaluated together ignoring the interstadials like Eemian, since it would have been similar to Holocene which contains our entire history.

Ice age landscape of India of course had some differences. Whole of Kashmir valley was a glacier during every ice age. During interglacial periods, that ice would melt completely, first forming a giant glacial melt lake in the bowl of Kashmir valley (which has been scoured out by glacial erosion). Ultimately the Jhelum and Indus would let the water in Kashmir glacial melt lake flow out, draining the lakes and making Kashmir habitable for animals, similar to the rest of the Himalayan foothills.  That’s where Kashmir is presently – glaciers all drained out

Sometimes the glaciers from Kashmir would extend out into Pakistani Punjab and upper Indus region when the world got really cold and would recede back when temperatures rose. The Indus and the rivers of Punjab were exactly the same perennial rivers as they are now, as is the Ganges, throughout the ice ages.

Monsoon started a long time before the Pleistocene started. The pliocene which came before the pleistocene had whole of India drenched in rain, full of greenery and animals. When Pleistocene started, rain reduced gradually. The early pleistocene for about a million years being very wet in India. Later on in the Pleistocene ice age, i.e in the last million or so years, the  world got even colder and India got drier and drier. Essentially, rainfall would show intense summer monsoon during interglacial phase and less intense monsoons during glacial periods.

In the Western ghats, it rained for longer periods during the glacial periods, upto 9 months instead of the present 4 months.

But that’s as a whole. To reconstruct the climate of India we need to focus more locally. Maharashtra and the south were lush tropical rainforests similar to what Kerala is today, during the glacial phase. Bengal and Assam were also lush tropical rainforest. It rained a lot in those places and nothing much changes in last 2.5 million years and more, whether it was glacial phase or interglacial phase.

UP and Bihar were drier places than now. The monsoon was weaker in the north than in the south during the glacial phase, though of longer duration. Most precipitation was in South India and Bengal and little reached north. The vegetation of UP was a lot lighter than in the recent past and was mostly a grassland savannah rich in herbivores. 

In fact the majority of the North India plain is derived from alluvial deposits eroded and deposited from the Eemian interglacial period 130,000 years ago when the himalayan glaciers melted and flowed out, carrying the rich soil. We really dont know too much about the plains before the Eemian period because everything is burried under very thick alluvial soil. After that phase of deposition of soil got got over, UP and Bihar were initially a forest during the Eemian interglacial period. 

In the Eemian as with the Holocene, the Punjab UP Bihar plains followed the same pattern - first its full of himalayan glacial melt carrying soil from Himalayas which deposits in the plain. Then a grassland grows, then denser vegetation and then thick Terai type forest grows. As long as the hot interglacial phase lasts, the plains are thick forest. As the world cools with onset of glacial phase, the monsoon reduces. The forests give way to more open woods as rainfall in insufficient to maintain it, and then scrub land comes and finally the entire north indian plain changes into a savannah grassland - it grows after the light monsoon in August and then dries out into a semi arid scrubland for the rest of the year. Most of these changes in vegetation occurred in the same fashion in Eemian and the present Holocene post 11000 BC to 500 BC - at which point we humans cut the forests and grew crops. Without humans the entire UP Bihar would be dense Terai forest. If we stop agriculture, within 100 years the plains would again be the same Terai forests.

Punjab, Sindh and Rajasthan showed the most changes during Pleistocene. It was very dry and covered by light scrub. Essentially a desert except for the Indus and other punjab river banks. As glacial melt rivers, without significant monsoon, the land between the rivers was very dry, rather similar to the present day Thaal desert of West Punjab adjacent to the upper Indus but even drier.

In other words, after the Yamuna changed direction of flow from Rann of Kutch to flow East to join the Ganges (44,000 BC) and after the monsoon reduced in the Bronze age cool period (1800 BC), the Punjab (without irrigation) demonstrated exactly how the whole of North India is during the ice age Glacial period - very dry semi arid scrub land with light monsoon in August after which the plains become a grassland but dries out over winter. The temperatures are approximately same as the present day - slightly longer winter cool period till April, less rain and Kashmir of course is iced throughout.

Gujarat had two western flowing rivers coming from the Himalayas in the ice ages. That’s what made those two estuary cuts that we are all so familiar with. The Yamuna which currently joins the Ganga flowed west but around 50,000 years ago due to gradual upliftment of the ground (Delhi ridge) it changed course and flowed east instead of west. Tothe left of the Yamuna was the Gaggar Hakra which was also a full flowing glacian melt river of the ice ages. After the Holocene hot period, the Gaggar Hakra still flowed until about 4400 years ago when reducing rainfall caused flows to reduce. The glacial melt part of the Gaggar Hakra water source changed course and was captured by the Sutlej, after which Gaggar Hakra became a dry channel which only flowed in the monsoon.  After that shift, there was no other large glacial melt river east of the Sutlej, since Yamuna was already flowing West from 50,000 years ago.

A new study has demonstrated that the Gaggar Hakra was a glacial melt derived river from 80,000 to 20,000 years ago. Like the other Indus system rivers, it dried up at the last glacial maximum 20,000 years ago and became monsoon fed dry channel (like now). But from 9000 to 4500 years ago it was having good glacial melt flow because the Sutlej flowed into it at that time. 4500 years ago Sutlej changed course into the Ravi and Gaggar Hakra became a dry monsoon rain channel.

Because of these reasons, the Gujarat and Punjab were largely semi arid desert from 1800 BC until 1870 AD when irrigation from rivers and tubewells transformed these geographies.

While the Eemian was the largest interglacial period, the sediment analysis showing increased water and sediment 80,000 years ago and 45000 years ago indicate periods of relative warming in India. Though not major interglacials, they would have coincided with solar maxima due to Milankovitch cycles. Assuming 130,000 was a maximum then 80,000 is next to next maximum. 53,000 would also have been a maximum, though the changes might have taken time to affect and sedimentation might have been more in 45,000. The tilted axis is responsible for a hot period every 26000 years. But not all hot periods are as hot as the Eemian and Holocene which melted the Himalayan glaciers.

Throughout the ice age India was mostly dry and a poor place for humans to survive. The Indus region, Narmada and Tamil Nadu shows numerous Acheulean stone implements indicating presence of Homo erectus. A single skull cap of Homo erectus is also recovered from Narmada.

More advanced stone implements in Tamil Nadu might indicate migration of Homo heidelbergensis as well, 400,000 to 100,000 years ago. No fossils have been found however. Homo sapiens remains from Pleistocene are also scare to come by, though paleolithic stone tools have been found in many sites prior to 9000 BC.

The late pleistocene was therefore the worst it could get for India but it wasn’t that bad. There was adequate rain. Most of India could support rich animal life. Punjab Rajasthan and Sind were deserts in the ice age though cooler. UP and Bihar were drier but the south and Bengal were wetter.

The changes in the Holocene from 9000 BC reflect similar changes in the Eemian. With warming, the glaciers melted. The monsoon became much wetter. From 9000 to 6000 BC saw very heavy rains in the whole of India with much higher monsoon precipitation. The desert of Punjab Sindh Rajasthan and Gujrat became lush forests. Enormous sediments were carried down from the Himalayas, just as it had happened in the Eemian. The Savannah of UP and Bihar transformed into dense jungle as did the whole of Bengal and Peninsular India. 6000 to 3000 BC the rains reduced in intensity in Punjab and Western India. Vegetation became lighter Savannah grass ideal for agriculture. Neolithic and chalcolithic agriculture came up in the Indus valley civilization. UP and Bihar remained jungles as did Narmada and the south. Between 3000 and 2000BC the glacial melt flow into Gaggar Hakra switched channels to Sutlej but monsoon was heavy enough to have sufficient flow so the Bronze age civilization of IVC flourished from 2600 to 1800 BC.

Temperatures in the Holocene were pretty steady from 9000 BC on. After the maximum temperature in 9000 BC it cooled a bit post 7000 BC. That coincided with the reduced rain in Punjab. Around 2000 BC it got very cold and a mini ice age started. By 1800 BC there was much higher glaciation in North America and Siberia. Rains all over middle East reduced drastically. Egypt, Mesopotamia, Iran, BMAC and IVC faced drastic declines from 1800 to 1500 BC. BMAC and IVC vanished. Punjab, Sind, Rajasthan and Gujarat turned into deserts. Deccan and South India had reduced rainfall and turned more arid. But monsoon continued in UP and Bihar which remained forested. Post 1500 BC earth warmed again and monsoon rain in UP and Bihar and peninsular India increased and things became similar to the present day conditions.

A second mini ice age from 1200 to 1800 again saw reduced rainfall in India and population maxima reached in Pala empire in 900-1000 AD declined by almost 25-30% during the Delhi Sultanate. 1400-1500 and 1700 -1800 AD time periods were especially cold and India had repeated drought and terrible famines.

So in all probability, India has the least to fear from climate change. Europe and North America there can be drastic change with both warming and cooling eventualities. India however is likely to remain hospitable just like Africa and things will go on regardless without change. Floods and cyclones might increase, monsoon failures might increase. But those are already a feature of Holocene. We also have very little to fear from rise in sea level – which was 6 to 9 meters higher in Eemian without substantial change in India.

Pakistan, Bangladesh and China have much more to fear from climate change than India

Do check out these references:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0031018213004732

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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279705200_Late_Quaternary_history_of_the_Ganga_Plain

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.harappa.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Harappa1986-90_03_Amundson_Pendall-Geoarch.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj3i-nL593qAhWJWX0KHWG6C044ChAWMAR6BAgBEAE&usg=AOvVaw28Z9rLFUuSyR_7a7UmzX_R

https://www.persee.fr/doc/paleo_0153-9345_1981_num_7_1_4291

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary-research/article/do-stable-isotope-data-from-calcrete-record-late-pleistocene-monsoonal-climate-variation-in-the-thar-desert-of-india/6EE4E0067A9C3A56EA79DD0216892F87

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.geosocindia.org/index.php/jgsi/article/download/64138/50109&ved=2ahUKEwiL2rnd6t3qAhUg7HMBHfD_D5U4FBAWMAN6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw0t23SVcZxnAj6G3iFrnHT2

Early pleistocene fossils in Punjab Siwaliks https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GALE%7CA524976542&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=00309923&p=AONE&sw=w

Eocene punjab little pleistocene in jap https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jgeography1889/85/6/85_6_311/_article/-char/en

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631068305001272

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0037073813000821

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/40/3/211/130795/U-Pb-zircon-dating-evidence-for-a-Pleistocene?redirectedFrom=fulltext

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://library.iigm.res.in:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/1050/1/JAES%252C%2520124%252C%252055-67%252C%25202016.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiBpp-CguXqAhUcxjgGHbZXCHA4ChAWMAF6BAgJEAE&usg=AOvVaw3JQFQ3quK2HgmyQH8fXRCA

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-53489-4

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://eacharya.inflibnet.ac.in/data-server/eacharya-documents/5717528c8ae36ce69422587d_INFIEP_304/120/ET/304-120-ET-V1-S1__file1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjpgtfNo9zqAhWTILcAHbZoCvwQFjAaegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw0HGdmZAqU51kC6suCX4S3h&cshid=1595265465842

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313622476_The_Indian_Lower_Palaeolithic&ved=2ahUKEwjYk5yoq9zqAhXt4nMBHY7gDGc4ChAWMAJ6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw2y4rvMY1Fi5Gq_ocnbFhn-

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://asi.nic.in/Ancient_India/recent_issues/new_series_1/article_2.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjYk5yoq9zqAhXt4nMBHY7gDGc4ChAWMAd6BAgAEAE&usg=AOvVaw0Cd3T_BxDmceXW-jwddPDf

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/news/2018/01/india-stone-tools-human-evolution-archaeology-science

Man changing rivers https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/1/3/21/htm

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.meteologos.rs/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/THE-EARLY-INSTRUMENTAL-CLIMATE-PERIOD-IN-EUROPE_1760-1860.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjmjeG8l-vqAhVH7XMBHYgyBIgQFjANegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw18gW8oZc2f4Y38hgCNaWEx&cshid=1595775641779

http://fossilworld.com/FW/Earths_Historical_Weather.html

HOW MAN BECAME MONOGAMOUS, LOST HIS FUR, GOT BLACK SKIN AND THEN BECAME BLONDE

Homo erectus, the direct ancestor of Homo sapiens, evolved in Africa between 2 and 1.5 million years ago (Mya). He was the same size as us, walked and ran erect. He made Acheulean stone axes for hunting and for scavenging big mammals killed by other predators. He built low stone walls, with animal skin tents above, or lived in caves with fire to keep him warm. He dressed in hide and fur when cold.

Homo erectus was very successful, spread out from Africa and lived all over Europe and Asia. But his brain size was smaller than humans and childhood period was shorter. He used proto language and formed social groups. Total numbers of these hunter gatherers were probably small, maybe 1- 200,000 at the peak, spread out all over Asia, Africa and Europe in small clans.

The Australopithecines and earlier hominins that preceded Homo erectus walked upright when forests in East and South Africa grew drier around 4 Mya, making it necessary to forage outside tree cover. As brain size increased, the period of infancy and childhood increased too, needing prolonged care. Australipithecus became monogamous so that males could forage and carry back food for his family in his hands. Bringing back fruit, nuts and roots with occasional meat made increasing brain size possible – in turn making him a better forrager – a beneficial cycle of walking, carring back better quality food, and increasing brain size.

Human ancestors probably remained largely monogamous after that, unlike Chimpanzees and monkeys. Australipithecus and Homo erectus both show reduced sexual dimorphism. Males and females looked alike and were of similar size, indicating reduced competition for mates. By 2.5 Mya, many parts of Africa changed from scrub or forest to open Savannah similar to the Serengeti plains of today. Herbivores abounded and Homo erectus adopted a predominantly meat diet. His intestines elongated and the cecum shortened, making him a well adapted carnivore. He cracked bone with stone axes for marrow and cooked his meat which increases nutritive value.

Australipithecus had fur. Homo erectus lost his fur so that he could run faster in day time hunting. Sweating from increasingly numerous sweat glands kept him cool in the hot sun. Long legs increased speed and cooling. Retained hair on head protected skull knocks, beard protected fist fights, pheromones and friction dictated pubic and armpit hair. Fur everywhere else vanished.

Furred creatures have white skin, which is not exposed to sunlight. After losing fur, Homo erectus acquired melanin producing enzymes 1.2 million years ago to protect from ultraviolet damage, which causes skin cancer. For ever after, until very recently, all men and their ancestors were dark skinned for this reason.

Homo erectus evolved into Homo heidelbergensis about 700,000 years ago. Heidelberg man hunted with stone tipped spears and moved out of Africa, replacing and maybe interbreeding with Homo erectus in most of Asia and Europe. In Europe and Siberia, Heidelberg man evolved into Neanderthals and Denisovans. In Africa Heidelberg man evolved and became Homo sapiens around 200,000 years ago. Modern man again spread out of Africa about 70,000 years ago, interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans but ultimately replacing them. 1-3% of humans everywhere except Africa have Neanderthal and Denisovan genes. Some of them might have improved our immunity or increased our tolerance to high altitude. Elsewhere Homo erectus continued to live in small communities and became extinct only 115,000 years ago, at the end of the Eemian period.

It’s important to realise that humans evolved from very small numbers. Neanderthals had permanent long term habitation in Europe from 400,000 years ago, but were not very fertile, never numbering over 50,000 people. Modern man was more fertile and hence replaced Neanderthals despite better adaptation of Neanderthals to the cold weather of Ice Age Europe. By the start of Holocene in 9000 BC Modern Man alone survived, and might have numbered a few hundred thousand individuals all over the world.

DNA from Homo heidelbergensis, Neanderthals and Denisovans have been sequenced. So has archaic human DNA. The results throw up startling findings about skin color.

Homo erectus of Europe was black. Neanderthal man was black. Modern man living in Europe until about 8000 BC was also dark skinned, occasionally with blue eyes. Everywhere in Asia Africa America, humans were varying shades of brown and black. Never white.

Vitamin D production needs light skin and UV light. But folate gets degraded by UV, if skin is too light. Folate is necessary to prevent cancer. The balance between these two, drives the skin color of humans based on amount of sunlight available. People in tropics always evolved towards dark skin to protect against skin cancer and since that’s where H erectus and H sapiens evolved, they were all dark skinned.

Blonde hair evolved around 9000 BC probably starting from small populations in Russia. Pre agricultural human settlements were under stress at this time. The number of men decreased as hunting and scavenging became harder and some didn’t return from hunting. Much of the big mammal herds and predators progressively become extinct with the start of Holocene. Humans from other competing clans were a danger. As the number of women increased, the fewer men selected light skinned blonde haired women as their mate due to sexual selection, affecting the allele frequency. Once derived, the northern climate ensured better survival of light skinned humans due to Vitamin D related selection pressure, but had selection disadvantage at lower latitudes near equator. As agricultural techniques which developed around 7000 BC in the Levant spread west to Europe through the human population, these skin and hair colours spread too, as did the Indo Aryan language group.

Nowadays of course blonde hair comes from a bottle. Anybody can be a blonde, including Indians, removing selection pressure. With less than 2% of the current population having naturally blonde hair genes, within 200 years it is projected to die out. The majority of humans are projected to trend towards a neutral Latin American skin tone. 

And as child rearing is undertaken via mobile phone based social networks, time requirements of parenting are reducing. The vestiges of monogamy are likely to vanish very quickly indeed.

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WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ICE AGE, BUT MOST OF US DON’T KNOW IT

An ice age is when one or both poles are permanently frozen. Like right now.

For most of the earth’s life, poles were not frozen. It was always summer - hot, humid and good for life to flourish. Called greenhouse phases, the average temperature of the earth was 30C (currently 15C).  Carbondioxide (CO2) was above 300 ppm (could reach 800 ppm or more). There was a greenhouse phase from 600 to 360 million years ago (Mya) i.e. lasting 240 million years and from 260 to 40 Mya (220 million years).

The Ice age previous to ours, called the Karoo Ice age, lasted from 360 to 260 Mya. Rodinia supercontinent split apart around 700 Mya. The pieces came together around 335 Mya to form another supercontinent called Pangea. Since the  Gondwana part of Pangea was in the South Pole region around 360 Mya, it got cold and the Karoo Ice age resulted. But only the poles got cold, like present day earth and unlike snowball earth of 2400-2100 Mya (Huronian) and 700-600 Mya (Cryogenian) when glaciation was extensive. During Karoo ice age there were carboniferous rain forests in the tropics which ultimately converted all carbondioxide to oxygen. CO2 fell from 800 ppm to below 300 ppm and oxygen levels went up causing more severe glaciation of poles around 300 Mya which ended the carboniferous era.

Evolution of termites ended the Karoo ice age, around 260 Mya. Termites digest lignin of even buried wood and their gut has methanogenic archaebacteria. Conversion of CO2 into wood and then coal occurred in swamp lands which by 260 Mya got submerged undersea, stopping the removal of carbon. Methane from termites accumulated. Forests died. CO2 and methane levels rose causing the global warming which ended the Karoo ice age. Later, 250 Mya there was a mass extinction of insects (Permian Triassic Extinction). We don’t know whether a meteor or volcano or climate change caused that.

It was hot and humid from 260 Mya. No ice caps. Cold blooded dinosaurs evolved and could roam the hot earth with ease. They got wiped out by a meteor falling into the Yucatan region around 65 Mya. It caused an impact winter because of dust in the atmosphere. All photosynthesis stopped. Winter lasted only a few thousand years but at the end of it, only creatures smaller than 25 Kilos survived. All else perished. We say the Era changed from Mesozoic to Cenozoic but the impact winter effects vanished fast and earth was hot again.

Things changed a bit when Pangea, which had split about 150 Mya, moved our continents to locations similar to present day (See figure – you can see India move up). 

Glaciers developed on Antarctica 40 Mya after Australia split off and moved up. A circumpolar sea current developed around Antarctica and cooled it. Northern hemisphere was not much affected. During Pliocene (10 Mya to 2.5 Mya) Co2 levels were around 400 ppm, not unlike today. Earth was warm and there was no ice in north pole.

The fourth and last Ice Age of Pleistocene started 2.5 Mya when the isthmus of Panama developed and stopped mixing of water between Pacific and Atantic. The north pole also froze. Wooly mammoths, wooly rhinos, sabre toothed cats etc evolved, just like the ice age movies.

As long as the Isthmus of Panama remains, earth will remain in an ice age.

Like the Karoo Ice age, Pleistocene was not a snowball earth. Africa, India, South America and South East Asia had climates pretty similar to what we have today, just a bit more arid with less rainfall. Homo erectus evolved 1.5 Mya in Africa and spread throughout the world, a scavenging nomad.

In the last 2.5 million years of the Pleistocene, there were interglacial periods when ice cover retreated. It happened every 100,000 years or so, brought about by solar maxima (Milankovitch cycles). Earth has a tilted axis which undergoes precession. Just like a spinning top, the axis moves in a circle every 26000 years. So every 13000 years earth faces more towards the sun and gets hotter. After another 13000 years it gets gets colder when axis tilts in reverse. Since orbit around sun is also eccentric, every 100,000 years or so the orbit and precession combine to make it hot enough for glaciers to melt a lot. Sometimes, sun spot activity also combines to accentuate or minimise these effects. These warm interglacial periods usually last for around 15000 years.

That’s where we are right now – an Interglacial period called Holocene.

Holocene started about 11600 years ago (or about 9000 BC) when we were at solar maximum with respect to axial tilt. It melted the glaciers and ended the ice age. Melting of float ice in sea doesn’t raise sea level but ice melt from European, Siberian and Canadian land mass does. Sea level rose by 60 meters or so (about the height of Qutab minar at 73m). Britain became an island because of channel ice melt. Sri Lanka became an island because sea levels rose to create Palk straits. Most of the giant mammals became extinct. Humans found conditions good for agriculture along the rivers and we became civilized, only ever knowning the interglacial period of Holocene in history.

The previous interglacial period is called the Eemian. It started 130,000 years ago and ended 115,000 years ago. It was hotter than the Holocene by about 1-2 degrees. CO2 was about 280 ppm, same as pre-industrial Holocene. It is during the Eemian that Homo sapiens developed.

Its interesting to note that during the Eemian, hippos roamed the Thames in London. Seas were 6-9 meters higher than today, including Baltic sea, making Norway and Sweden an island.

The Eemian ended when the earth’s axis tilted away, as expected, having lasted 15000 years. It iced over for 100,000 years after that. When we talk of “The Ice Age”, we normally mean the last 100,000 years. Global temperatures were around 10C and CO2 levels were around 200 ppm. Most human migrations from Africa occurred in this period as they went where prey were easier to catch, including the ice age mammals of Europe, Asia and the Americas. A few also came to India.

Many people don’t realise that we are now close to the solar minimum due to axial tilt. We have enjoyed 11600 years of warm interglacial period. In a few thousand years, the earth is due for another ice age. Our only long term hope is to prevent it using climate control technology.

One might think that global warming is good, as it prevents another ice age. But things aren’t so simple. As long as we stay where we are now, its “probably” fine.

But if earth warms too much, it causes a catastrophy. Global warming increases precipitation of rain and snow. Within a few hundred years, snow accumulates in the poles and an ice age develops. However, thats far away.

In the short run, within our lifetimes, a hot earth makes everything very unpleasant indeed. Cyclones, floods, blizzards, we get them all. The last few years have already indicated these dangers. We are a few crop failures away from a global famine. Any drastic global warming results in an out of control climate disaster.

We want things to stay stable until we do enough research and learn to control the climate properly, which might take a 100 years. Until then, lets keep our methane and CO2 emissions curtailed.

Just like every previous climate change, the issue is evolve or perish. The evolution demanded of us is to become better planet scientists able to control the factors which dictate our climate. The Pleistocene Ice Age we live in has given us just enough time to be able to do it – provided we don’t mess it up with backward Anti-Science mentalities.

 

Ref:

1. Pedersen RA, Langen PL, Vinther BM. The last interglacial climate: comparing direct and indirect impacts of insolation changes. Clim Dyn 2017;48:3391-3407

2. Salonen JS, Helmens KF, Brendryen J et al. Abrupt high-lattitude climate events and decoupled seasonal trends during the Eemian. Nature Communications 2018;9:2851

3. Wikipedia for the rest as on 19.7.20

Image created by screenshotting this video below:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=WaUk94AdXPA

CLIMATE CATASTROPHY AND EVOLUTION: FOUR SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN 4 BILLION YEARS

The earth formed 4.5 billion years ago. Ancestral archaea (archaebacteria) evolved from undersea hydrothermal vents 3.8 billion years ago when the earth was hot and fiery. The atmosphere was full of methane and carbon-dioxide (CO2). Archaea are the only organisms which produce methane, even now (apart from petroleum breakdown deep under the earth). Eubacteria evolved from ancestral archebacteria some 3.2 billion years ago but caused no climate change. For 1.3 billion years there was no oxygen in the air and the only life was bacteria. Until 2.5 billion years ago when one type of eubacteria evolved to acquire thylakoid membranes and photosynthesis, becoming Cyanobacteria.

This amazing thing has happened just once in the history of this earth. Flight for example has evolved four times independently (insects, pterodactyl, birds, bats) not counting many types of gliding.

This singular event of photosynthesis changed the face of the earth causing “The Great Oxygenation Event”. All the methane combined with oxygen to form CO2, which again got used up by Cyanobacteria. The oxygen killed off most of the bacterial types. With greenhouse gases (methane, CO2) gone, the earth cooled drastically. The whole of earth was like a ball of ice for 300 million years or so, from 2400 to 2100 million years ago (Mya), called the Huronian glaciation (from Lake Huron). Even the cyanobacteria were frozen and most of life stopped.

Oxygen caused the first climate catastrophy and a “Snowball earth”.

The Huronian glaciation ended 2100 Mya. It escaped that icy deep freeze because volcanos and moving tectonic plates released enough carbondioxide to warm the earth and life flourished again. A supercontinent called Columbia formed, as a result of these geological changes, lasting from 2000 to 1800 Mya. Only to break up again. The air was polluted with oxygen but life found a way and evolved to use oxygen now. An archaebacterial ancestor had evolved into eukaryotes, which unlike all bacteria, have a nucleus. Eukaryotes absorbed (a process called endosymbiosis) a type of eubacteria into the cytoplasm, which could efficiently use oxygen. These are now called mitochondria, being present in every cell and help in efficient oxygen utilization. Some eukaryotes further had endosymbiosis of cyanobacteria within them which turned into plastids, the chlorophyll substance of plants. These two types of still unicellular eukaryotes lived along with the archebacteria, eubacteria and cyanobacteria for 1.4 billion years (2100-700 Mya), evolving but without significant change.

Rodinia, another supercontinent formed 1100 Mya started breaking up by moving tectonic plates 700 Mya. Weather patterns changed, there was more rain and it froze causing 100 million years of deep freeze. The glaciation ended around 600 Mya due to volcanic eruptions. But a drastic change happened to life.  

600 Mya, as life bloomed again after the freeze, multicellular organisms evolved from different types of eukaryotes in multiple independent events to create plants (which has plastids derived from cyanobacterial thylakoids), animals (invertebrate and vertebrate) and others like fungi. Plants control cell growth using plant hormones. Animals control cell growth using apoptosis, a programmed cell death. Fungi grow with food, portions die without food to retreat and sporulate. All different means to become multicellular. To start with plants were small but when they evolved to acquire a hard protein called lignin 450 Mya, it made huge trees possible. Massive rainforests covered the earth in the carboniferous era from 350 to 290 Mya. CO2 levels were 800 ppm. This era converted enormous quantities of carbon into coal via fossilisation of trees. Ambhibians and Insects predominated the land animals.

It ended as before when plate tectonics changed the climate. The earth cooled. The “Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse” occurred. Thick forests turned into open tree fern covered land. Amphibians died in large numbers, Reptiles evolved and life moved on.

Going over 4 billion years of the earth’s life one sees four significant events.

a.      1. Photosynthesis by Cyanobacteria caused a snowball earth 2400 Mya

b.      2. Melting glaciation (Huronic) caused evolution of Eukaryotes 2100 Mya

c.       3. Second melting glaciation caused evolution of multicellular organisms 600 Mya

d.    4. A newly evolved protein called lignin (450 Mya) laid the groundwork of making the coal which today threatens yet another modern climate catastrophy

Each event is associated with climate change. Evolve or perish is the situation repeatedly created by our planet. Every time, life has evolved and not perished. These 4 billion years also created the present biomass balance where 80% is plants, Eubacteria including cyanobacteria 15%, Fungi 2%, Archaea 1%, Animals and rest 2%.

In that single last line is the secret to climate change and the balance of life which we as humans need to find. The future projected a thousand years from today is crystal clear. Either humans learn to fine tune earth’s climate. Or the earth turns into another snowball for thousands of years, because the end result of global warming is once again a cooling catastrophy.

Ref:

1.   1. Kopp RE, Kirschvink JL, Hillburn IA, Nash CZ.The Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth:A climate disaster triggered by the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis. PNAS 2005;102:11131-11136

2.      2. Bar-On YM, Pholips R, Milo R. The biomass distribution on earth. PNAS 2018;115:6505-6511.

3.      3. Wikipedia for everything else as on 18.7.20

How will India grow ?

Its a puzzle how India will grow.

Sadly, Jaitley and Modi are extremely stupid and dont realise how much they are screwing the country.

Whatever harm they could do they have done.

Thats why our agriculture is static, our manufacturing is static or contracting, our services are static, our small enterprises have been rogered by the twin whammy of demonetization and GST.

If these two terrible twins had done their job properly, Sensex would have been already at 60,000.

But India's situation is such that even after all this harm, one can still look forward to some 6% growth at least for next two years. That is 13% (compounded) growth after two years. That is India going from 2.25 trillion GDP currently to 2.6 trillion GDP.

That is 350 billion dollars in growth. 

The situation is such that corporate earnings are bound to grow much more that 13% - more like 50% growth (that too on a lousy base) after 2 years in selected companies.

Modi had two years of bad monsoon, converted third monsoon into a drought of money by demonetization - which hurt small companies disproportionately and now GST which is again making life very difficult for small companies.

Question comes - what will grow?

Not services because IT is matured.

Not exports because Pharma is in trouble - not because of FDA but because of pricing pressure from increasing competition as countries shift to generics. So margins will get squeezed. Leather is in doldrums because of cow politics. Diamonds and gold is in trouble because of the GST and black money crackdown and as dollar rises gold will fall. Not textiles export because of GST.

Not manufacturing because we just cannot compete with China which is a 11 trillion dollar behemoth - and while so far wages have been rising in China, as situation becomes more competitive, Chinese will be happy to drop their wage expectations. And their capacity is enough for the world - adding more capacity in India will only crash the prices of end products.

Agriculture is possible. So far, the policies of this devlish duo have hurt 50,000 crores worth of cow based economy. Milk, leather and beef industry has been eviscerated. In the short run the small time money lenders have also been put out of business because of demonetisation and black money crack down - and agriculture majorly runs on small time money lenders.

But in future there is hope for the sector. The GST, reforms of APMC and improved availability of organised credit as well as insurance to the agri sector seems to be a big focus. It is also a vote generating process and it seems like govt has some focus on this.

Investment led growth is still waiting for the govt to deliver a major spending thrust. When it comes, that will be a major boom.

Real estate has been majorly destroyed by the govt, as regards the black money, demonetisation AADHAAR and other measures. However another major push is needed in affordable housing - although in the absence of job creation, consumption of affordable real estate is difficult.

Where is this 350 billion of GDP going to come from?

Has to be agri 30% = 100 billion dollars, housing 30% = 100 billion dollars and infra 40% i.e. 150 billion dollars approx.

Current India agriculture GDP is 500 billion from some sources, though 17% of 2.2 trillion is 370 billion. Regardless, going to 600 billion is possible and likely - as efficiency of markets increases the possibility of more money going to farmers instead of middle men increases. It is however unprecedented in India's history - almost 25% growth in 2 years. Seems almost impossible and yet it is possible. A majority of this growth however might be related to better farmer realization and consumption led growth by the Indian farmer.

Currently Indian real estate contributes 9% of the GDP so about 200 billion. A hundred billion increase in two years represents a 50% growth in two years. The stage is set for it in the form of lowering of interest rates. But whether the fish will bite is a different question - will people buy? Will they take loans to build more new constructions when every day the insolvency of builders is making headline news is a big question. The traditional route of black money has been closed off. Will people take loans to buy a house ?

To me the more likely possibility is that farmers will take more loan to build pucca villlage houses - and buildings of pucca houses in small towns - that seems possible. Whether they will repay the loan after their habits are spoilt by recent loan waivers is another issue - but for now, that is a big hope. To have 100 billion in housing in two years, assuming a house takes two years to build - will take exactly 100 billion in capital i.e. 6 lakh crores of Rupees. Mostly from HFC and private banks.

That equals the 4.8 plus 1,3 lakh crore loan book size of HDFC and LICHF combined and probably represents a 25-50% jump in loan book size for real estate of all banks put together.

That leaves us with 150 billion i.e. 10 lakh crore worth of GDP from infra push = 5 lakh crores worth of expenditure each year by the govt.

Will we see that? So far it has not done. But if it is done, we are through.

The implications for the economy is massive. What needs to be done is simple - but so far govt has not done. It has destroyed instead.

It is not too late.

The companies benefitting from this are very concentrated and few. Housing finance. Private banks. Cement. Construction material. Farm consumption i.e. FMCG, construction, consumer durables like fridge TV. Motor cycles, cars, low end SUV.

IT companies are a changed business model. Pharma will face pricing pressure after the FDA headwinds. PSU banks are now dead, govt doesnt have capital to give them and in anyway needs 5 lakh crore per annum of excess expenditure. It seems likely that the future growth will be entirely by private banks expanding to double and triple their current size - PSUI firms might go the way of MTNL. Big realty firms also seem to have run out of wind, since affordable is small ticket and likely to be spread this and distributed in villages rather than big projects - which have already been created for next 5 years of consumption anyway as the stalled projects complete. Metals also seem rangebound. 

That leaves private banks, housing finance companies, motorcycles and cars, cement and construction. Thats it. Very small list of companies

Govt led construction seems focussed on multiple small contracts to small unlisted forms rather than large listed firms - the subcontractors seem to be directly employed by govt.

FMCG seeing major onslaught by traditional products - which might increase if the majority of consumers are rural. So FMCG also out.

So large construction firms like L and T might also not grow enough over large base already. Smaller construction firms like J Kumar and GMR etc are all linked to congress and are in debt trap - govt might bypass them. Construction materials seems safer play.

So a focussed portfolio of less than 10 stocks should cover these. So the six private banks (ICICI, HDFC, Kotak, Axis, Yes, Indus) six cement companies, six of the largest of the housing finance lenders, auto( maruti, hero, TVS Bajaj) and other materials (tiles, sanitary ware, paint, adhesives, plywood). 

With careful choice, should double in two years 

(already done wel since Jan2015 btw when I first gave my model portfolio of shares and funds)

This is what I wrote in Jan 2015

Portfolio recommendations for 2015 to 2018 (4 year recommendation and 4 year hold)

Size of portfolio 1001. PPF 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 10) Currently 12.5
 2. FMP 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 10) Currently 12.5
 3. Direct equity 25
 a. Pidilite industries 5 (price on 1.1.15 = 552) Currently 830 = 7.5
 b. HDFC bank 5 (price on 1.1.15 =947)  Currently 1761 = 9.3 
c. Asian paints 5 (price on 1.1.15 =747) Currently 1135 = 7.5 
d. Ramco cement 5 (price on 1.1.15 =342) Currently 660 = 9.6 
e. LIC housing finance 5 (price on 1.1.15 =437) Currently 650  = 7.4
 4. Funds 50a. Franklin bluechip 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 338) Currently 450 = 13.3
 b. UTI opportunities 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 48) Currently 54 - switched when its NAV was 48 to Axis long term @NAV 30@1.1.17  Currently 38 = 12.6
c. BNP midcap 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 22.33) Currently33 = 14.7
 d. Franklin smaller companies 10 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 36.69) Currently 54.5 = 14.8
 e. Reliance pharma 5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 126.6) Currently 124 - switched when its NAV was 127 or so hence equal weight to direct equity - Hero@3000@1.1.17 Currently 3870 = 6.45
 f. Franklin infotech fund 5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 110)  Currently 117 - switched when its NAV was 110 so equal weight to direct equity - Maruti @4700@1.1.17 Currently 7600 = 8.1
 5. Birla global real estate fund 5 (NAV on 1.1.15 = 17.53) Currently 117 - switched when its NAV was 17.5 so equal weight to direct equity - Kotak@690 @1.1.17 Currently 977 = 7.1


 
Rationale

This is a selected stock+ sector fund + fund type of portfolio (not a stock only or high risk stock with fund or fund only portfolio). It is meant for safe, non monitored and risk free investment. There are 2 semi FMCG vs construction related stocks i.e. Asian paints and Pidilite. There are 2 banks (HDFC and LICHF) and one cement. The aim is concentrated risk on high growth. Only 3 best sectors selected (2 players from 2 sectors meant to minimize company specific risk). IT and Pharma sectors are covered by sector funds instead of specific stocks to minimize risk. There are 2 small and midcap funds to maximize gain and one multicap and one large cap fund to capture overall economic performance. Birla REIT can be replaced by a fund (Value discovery) if don’t want dollar denominated hedge. I have posted the NAV on 1.1.15 and we can compare this with levels on 31.12.15 and in each subsequent year with yearly course corrections if needed (stocks selected do not need course correction, being safe bluechips and funds selected are anyway a 4 year hold). I re-emphasize – this is a risk averse portfolio for prudent investment and not meant for higher risk appetite.


These are also meant to be used for SIP (into funds) and systematic equity plans for a drip into the stocks, to gain from price falls which might come. However I will not be analyzing the SIP and SEP performances since not worth the effort.

So the direct equity vastly outperformed the funds selected - I sold the funds about a year ago and bought a number of shares but writing only the ones kept as part of model portfolio for yearly comparison. 

So this concentrated portfolio of stocks and funds should deliver good returns is my opinion (I personally have many other stocks and funds, including all of these but bought at varying points of time and at varying prices, just putting down the model portfolio for yearly comparisons only - these are also not the portfolio weightage in my personal portfolio, this is just model portfolio)



Portfolio value after 2 and seven months = 143 (using 10% for PPF and FMP for ease of calculation)

Compounding return =  14.8 % 

Sensex on 1.1.15 was 27900 and is currently 31596 giving a compounding return of 5% 

LETS ANALYSE THE FUND PERFORMANCE ALSO. 10 Rupees INVESTED IN 1.1.15 HAS BECOME BY 24.8.17

1. Franklin Bluechip 12.81 LARGE keep
2. BNP Mid Cap 14.54 MIDCAP keep
3. Franklin Smaller Companies 14.8 MID AND SMALL keep
4. Axis Long Term 13.34 LARGE tax discard
5. HDFC Mid Cap Opportunity 14.49 MIDCAP keep
6. ICICI Pru Value Discovery 12.46 DIVERSIFIED discard
7. BSL Pure value 14.77 MID AND SMALL keep
8. Franklin Prima 14.14 MID AND SMALL discard
9. Franklin Prima Plus 13.15 LARGE keep
10. HDFC Equity 12.46 LARGE discard
11. ICICI Pru Long Term 12.17 LARGE tax discard
12. HDFC Prucence 12.9 LARGE bal discard
13.  HDFC Balanced 13.41 LARGE bal discard
14. Kotak Select focus 14.19 LARGE keep
15. SBI Bluechip 13.72 LARGE discard
16. Most focussed multicap  17.19 MULTICAP keep
17. ABSL Top 100 13.1 LARGE keep
18. BSL Equity 14.7 DIVERSIFIED keep
19. Mirae asset emerging bluechip 16.5 MID AND SMALL keep
20. Mirae india opportunity 14.16 DIVERSIFIED keep
21. ICICI Pru bluechip 13.09 LARGE discard
22. Franklin high growth companies 12.9 DIVERSIFIED discard

In view of lower interest rates in FMP maturing and more aggressive risk seeming justified currently, I am switching out from PPF and FMP at present prices to direct equity - maintaining total value of portfolio at 143 as attained from previous allocations. So current allocations are as follows

24.8.17 Nifty 9857 Value of portfolio = 143

Stocks ~ 60% 

Pidilite industries 20@ 830
HDFC bank 9.3@1761
Asian paints 7.5 @ 1135 
Ramco cement 22.1@660
LIC housing finance 7.4@650

Hero motors 6.45@3870
Maruti 8.1@7600
Kotak bank 7.1@ 977

Equity Funds ~ 40%

Kotak Select Focus LARGE 13.3@31.49
Most focussed Multicap MULTICAP 12.6@26.61 

BNP midcap MIDCAP 14.7@33
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip MID AND SMALL 14.8@46.26